The San Diego Padres have landed near the top of MLB.com’s latest drought-busting forecast, with Will Leitch ranking them third among the franchises most likely to win a World Series in 2027.
That’s notable company for a club that remains one of four active franchises never to have won the Fall Classic. Leitch’s list was built around the 13 teams that have gone without a title since MLB expanded to 30 clubs in 1998, and he placed the Padres behind only the Tampa Bay Rays and Seattle Mariners.
For San Diego, the appeal is easy to see. Leitch pointed to a roster that could still be built around the same core of veterans, plus a new ownership group that has already signaled a commitment to winning.
He also singled out Fernando Tatis Jr., writing: "The Padres should be loaded for bear with the same gaggle of veterans they trotted out there last year, and a new ownership group that’s eager to show the same commitment to winning Padres fans have gotten used to. It also helps that Fernando Tatis Jr. looks like an MVP candidate again.
They’ll be a fun sleeper pick next year."
The Padres’ 2027 outlook comes after a season that ended with a 91-71 record, a second-place finish in the NL West and a win over the Chicago Cubs in the NL Wild Card Series. Their year also took on extra significance when MLB approved the new ownership group of Jose E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones in August, a move that added another layer of optimism around the franchise.
Even so, there’s plenty of work ahead. The biggest question marks are on the mound, where San Diego may need to remake much of its starting rotation. That could become even more pressing if the club doesn’t exercise Nick Pivetta’s contract option and if Michael King, who opted out of the final two years of his contract on Thursday, does not return.
The lineup isn’t settled, either. First baseman Ty France, coming off a career year, is a free agent, and the Padres still have unresolved decisions in left field and at designated hitter.
Leitch’s optimism stands in contrast to some other evaluations of San Diego. One outlet ranked the Padres 18th in MLB heading into the offseason and only 10th in the National League.
At the top of Leitch’s list are the Rays, who still haven’t won a championship since entering the league in 1998. The Mariners came in second, followed by the Padres, with the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Mets completing the top five. The Blue Jays’ last World Series title came in 1993, while the Mets last won in 1986.
In Other News...
Padres Face Tough 40-Man Calls On Prospects They Cant Risk Losing
With the Rule 5 draft still tied up by the unresolved Collective Bargaining Agreement and the end of the lockout, the Padres are in a holding pattern on one of the trickiest parts of their offseason. They cannot make their own Rule 5 selections until the process resumes, but they still have to decide which prospects are worth protecting on the 40-man roster before another club can get a crack at them.
That puts a spotlight on a handful of young players who have put themselves into the conversation, including Tucker Musgrove, Gutierrez, Jagger Haynes, Braedon Karpathios and Jake Cunningham. San Diego has to balance present roster pressure against future upside, and these are the kinds of calls that can shape a farm system for years, even if the final move does not come until the calendar and the labor situation finally catch up. [Read more 🡒]
Padres Farm System Debate Just Got Harder To Ignore
The Padres farm system conversation has taken on a sharper edge after El Pasos uneven season, one that exposed how thin the margin can be between encouraging development and organizational concern. The Chihuahuas finished 60-90 and stumbled badly in the second half, even as the offense managed to settle into the middle of the league in several categories and give the system at least a few signs of life.
Pitching was the bigger problem, with the staff posting a rough ERA and run differential that made it hard to find much comfort in the results. Still, there were individual bright spots worth noting, especially catcher Ethan Salas, who showed strong work on both sides of the ball before reaching San Diego, and Braedon Karpathios, whose late-season promotion offered another glimpse of a prospect with some upside. [Read more 🡒]
Padres Face A Tough Walker Buehler Call This Offseason
Walker Buehler gave the Padres exactly the kind of season that complicates an offseason. He took the ball 32 times and logged 153 2/3 innings, a workload that mattered as much as the improved ERA and WHIP he posted compared with earlier seasons. For a rotation that has been searching for stability, that kind of bounce-back makes him a real asset, and it also makes him more expensive at the negotiating table.
The problem for San Diego is that value cuts both ways. Buehlers strong year has raised his market, and the Padres are still weighing whether they want to commit to a multiyear deal or keep looking for starters who can consistently work deeper into games. Before they sit down to talk contract, the club would be wise to set a firm price and have other rotation plans in place, because this is the kind of decision that can shape the whole offseason. [Read more 🡒]