The Padres have spent most of this season getting beaten by the Phillies head-to-head, but the race isn’t done yet. San Diego can’t undo the six losses it already absorbed in the season series, yet it can still make Philadelphia pay in the standings. That opportunity got a little better with Jesús Luzardo landing on the injured list.
Entering Thursday, the Padres sat at 83-69, one game behind the 84-68 Phillies and 1.5 games behind the 85-68 Cubs. A stretch that once looked like a scramble for the final NL Wild Card has turned into something bigger, with San Diego winning nine of its last 10 and pushing itself into better postseason positioning.
The catch is simple: because Philadelphia swept the season series, the Padres don’t get the luxury of just tying the Phillies. They have to pass them outright. So that one-game gap matters more than it looks on paper, and Luzardo’s shoulder injury makes the climb a little less steep.
That’s because the Phillies are losing more than just a solid starter. Luzardo has been a frontline arm all year, going 14-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 221 strikeouts over 178 2/3 innings. Even more alarming for Philadelphia, he has posted a 1.93 ERA over his last 21 starts, and the team went 18-3 in those games.
His most recent outing was a two-hit shutout against Atlanta. After that, inflammation in his left shoulder kept him from resuming throwing, and he was placed on the IL. An MRI showed no structural damage, and Luzardo said the shoulder feels considerably better, but that doesn’t mean he’s ready to take the mound.
At this point, his regular season is probably done. He is eligible to return for Game 162, though the best-case scenario would be only a short appearance that day. Otherwise, his next outing could come in a playoff game after about three weeks away from a big league mound.
Luzardo said he is “fully confident” he will be ready, but even he admitted the layoff could leave him rusty. Philadelphia now has to patch his rotation spot with at least one bullpen game and maybe two, which is no small ask with the Brewers and Rays - winners of 95 and 92 games entering Thursday - waiting in the final six games.
San Diego’s road isn’t exactly smooth either. The Padres finish with Colorado, host Miami, then head to the Dodgers before coming home for three games against Arizona.
But this is the opening they wanted, and they’ve got it now. Philadelphia has lost its hottest starter at the worst possible time, and the Padres’ job is to take care of everything on their side.
In Other News...
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Padres Suddenly Have A Real October Rotation Decision
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Nick Pivettas return from injury has only sharpened the conversation. He has put together two strong starts, kept the walks off the board and limited damage, which gives the Padres another legitimate option at a time when postseason rotation choices also have to account for bullpen management. With both pitchers making cases in different ways, San Diego suddenly has to decide not just who starts in October, but how much it wants to value recent form versus the broader shape of its pitching staff. [Read more 🡒]