The Padres do not have much reason to think a cleaner, cheaper path will appear if Michael King leaves. Freddy Peralta’s projected contract sharpens that point.
In Jim Bowden’s free-agent forecast for The Athletic, Peralta is expected to land a five-year, $140 million deal. Bowden projects King at four years and $118 million.
That pencils out to $28 million per season for Peralta and $29.5 million for King, a gap of just $1.5 million annually. The bigger difference is on the back end: one more year and another $22 million in total commitment for Peralta.
That’s not the kind of spread that makes replacing King look simple.
Yes, these are only projections, and negotiations can push those numbers in different directions. But as a baseline for San Diego’s offseason thinking, the comparison makes the same point in plain language: the Padres should be ready to pay King instead of assuming the next option comes at a better price.
Peralta does bring a real selling point. Bowden noted that he is one of only two starters to make at least 30 starts in each of the past four seasons, and that durability matters.
It also comes with some turbulence. Peralta had a 4.99 ERA in 22 starts with the Mets before a deadline trade to Tampa Bay.
He then posted a 3.25 ERA in 10 regular-season starts for the Rays and won ALCS MVP honors.
That late surge will help him in free agency, but the rougher first half can’t be brushed aside. Any team making a major investment has to decide how much weight to put on the changes Peralta made after the trade. If San Diego were weighing that kind of deal, it would need to do plenty of homework before moving forward.
King gives the Padres something different: familiarity. They already know his preparation, how he works with their coaches and how he fits while pitching for this club.
That doesn’t eliminate the danger of injury or decline, but it does mean the Padres already have the information they need on him. Bringing in another pitcher at a similar price point would be the bigger gamble.
Bowden included the Padres among Peralta’s best fits, though that should be read as his judgment rather than a sign of active pursuit. The Padres were also linked to Peralta before he was traded to the Mets.
If King does leave, San Diego would be left with the task of replacing his rotation spot. A top free agent could require a heavy guarantee.
A trade could mean surrendering players the organization would rather keep. A lower-cost signing could shift more pressure onto the rest of the staff.
That is why the Padres need to negotiate firmly with King and set a number they can live with. Peralta’s projection is a reminder that the market can get expensive fast, even when the annual salary looks only slightly different.
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For San Diego, the recognition is more than a nice nod from an outside outlet. It reinforces the shape of the clubs identity, with Tatis driving the lineup and Miller shutting down games at the back end, and it comes at a time when the Padres are trying to stay in the conversation among baseballs most dangerous teams. When two players can make that kind of national list in the same season, the bigger question is how much more room there is for the rest of the roster to rise around them. [Read more 🡒]
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For now, contract talks have not even gotten to the point where the Padres and Adam have hashed out a number, which leaves plenty unresolved. His market value is hard to pin down because the injury history complicates everything, and that creates a real possibility that San Diego will have to decide whether the price goes beyond what it believes makes sense. It is the kind of bullpen call teams dread in the winter, when a useful arm can still matter, but the medical file is impossible to ignore. [Read more 🡒]
Dodgers Just Got Pulled Into A Padres Rotation Rumor
The Padres are expected to spend the offseason looking hard at their rotation, and that search has already pushed them into the kind of star-powered territory that tends to reshape a winter. A Bleacher Report analyst has pegged Tarik Skubal as a prime target, which is no small matter for a team that has made starting pitching one of its clearest priorities going into the next round of roster building.
Skubal is coming off a 2026 season with the Dodgers, and the price tag attached to his next deal is expected to be enormous. For San Diego, the appeal is obvious: an elite left-hander at the top of the market would immediately change the look of the staff. Whether the Padres can actually get involved at that level is the real question, especially with a record-setting contract likely waiting on the other side. [Read more 🡒]