The Padres got hit with a loss so ugly it should change the way they think about the deadline.
A 23-3 beating at the hands of the Cubs at Wrigley Field was the kind of night that doesn’t just disappear with the next series. It was the largest margin of defeat in franchise history, and it came with eight Cubs home runs, a tie for the most runs the Padres have ever allowed, and even Rodolfo Durán, a catcher, taking the mound again.
That’s the backdrop as the trade deadline creeps closer: San Diego is losing in a way that makes buying feel dangerous.
This is the part of the season when clubs talk themselves into hope. One bat.
One starter. One hot streak and suddenly everything feels salvageable.
But the Padres are in no position to lean on that kind of optimism right now, especially after getting swept by a Cubs club that’s also hunting for starting pitching.
They’ve lost five in a row and sit one game over .500 for the first time since early April. Their rotation has also been a problem in a very specific way, failing to get through five innings in 10 of the last 14 games.
So the real question is no longer what San Diego can add. It’s what it should stop pretending.
The Padres have not earned a deadline rescue mission
This isn’t about tearing the whole thing down. And even if it were, the Padres might not have an easy path to doing it.
They’ve already poured massive money into stars whose value is, individually and together, at a rough low point. Manny Machado’s 11-year, $350 million deal, Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 14-year, $340 million contract and Jackson Merrill’s 9-year, $135 million deal all sit in a season that isn’t helping their market.
Xander Bogaerts has improved, but he still hasn’t lived up to the 11-year, $280 million commitment.
If the Padres tried to move those kinds of contracts, they’d probably have to eat a pile of money just to make it happen. And even then, the return would be complicated.
The Cardinals showed one version of a reset. They moved veterans, absorbed plenty of dead money and turned it into a wave of prospect talent. Now they’re sitting at 44-39 and one of the league’s biggest surprises.
But that route depends on having the prospects in place to build around. The Padres don’t really have that.
Ethan Salas is there, and that’s about the cleanest building block in the system. If Leo De Vries were still around, a sell-off would be easier to sell to the fan base.
Without him, the path is thinner.
That doesn’t make the Mason Miller move look bad. An elite closer is an elite closer. But it’s hard to make a case for stacking the back end of the bullpen when the games are already getting out of hand before that part of the roster even matters.
What San Diego should be looking at is something more modest and more practical: a soft sell. Keep the core, but move the pieces that can actually bring something back.
Jake Cronenworth could be in play. Gavin Sheets has one more controllable year left and could bring value while it’s still there.
And there are short-term veterans who could be flipped to make the farm system at least a little more interesting again.
Because if the Padres are being honest, what exactly are they buying for right now? They look overmatched and would need far too much help to justify pushing in for another run.
That’s the trap for A.J. Preller.
The standings are close enough to create temptation. A .500-ish team can always convince itself the next addition is the one that changes everything, especially when the roster still has star names on it.
But being close in the standings is not the same thing as being close to winning something meaningful.
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Of course, that is only the first hurdle. Any pursuit would have to clear the kind of hurdles that tend to slow down deadline dreams, from the pitchers contract situation to the salary attached to him, and San Diego would not be alone in the chase. Other National League teams are expected to circle as well, which is exactly the sort of competition that can turn a Preller-style idea into the summers next real test. [Read more 🡒]