The Cubs and Padres are back at it in October, and this time San Diego gets the stage.
One year after Chicago knocked out the Padres in the Wild Card Series at Wrigley Field, the matchup flips to Petco Park for a best-of-three set that will stay in San Diego no matter what. The Padres finished 91-71 and claimed the fourth seed, while the Cubs came in at 89-73. The winner moves on to face the Milwaukee Brewers, the No. 1 seed in the National League, in the NLDS.
Chicago brings plenty of firepower into the series. The Cubs finished with a .767 OPS, best in MLB, and they led the National League with 220 home runs.
They also have the league’s top defensive run prevention mark, finishing with 116 defensive runs saved, according to The Fielding Bible. San Diego, though, has a different kind of momentum working for it.
The Padres won 17 of their last 20 games, went 43-23 after the All-Star break, and paced the majors in September with a .815 OPS.
The regular-season meetings leaned hard toward Chicago. The teams played six times, and the Cubs won five of them.
They took two of three in San Diego in April, then swept the Padres at Wrigley in late June. Chicago outscored San Diego 55-28 in those games, though that total was padded by a 23-3 Cubs win on July 1.
Even so, those games came before the All-Star break, and the Padres have been rolling since then.
Pitching is where this series gets interesting. San Diego looks set up neatly at the top, with Michael King lined up for Game 1 Tuesday night.
King posted a 3.21 ERA and 159 strikeouts over 185 innings, giving the Padres a steady front-line arm to start the series. Nick Pivetta is the favorite for Game 2 after returning from a five-month absence with a right flexor strain and putting up a 2.86 ERA with 42 strikeouts in 34.2 innings.
If the series goes the distance, the Padres could turn to Robbie Ray or Walker Buehler.
The Cubs’ opening plan is less settled. Matthew Boyd and Kevin Gausman are the main options for Game 1, but Gausman’s status is still uncertain after he injured his non-throwing shoulder on September 23 while diving to make a tag at third base.
He is day-to-day and threw a successful bullpen session on Sunday, with the Cubs set to keep monitoring him Monday before making a call on his availability. If Gausman can’t go, Boyd becomes the likeliest Game 1 starter.
He finished the year with a 3.91 ERA and 96 strikeouts in 126.2 innings. After that, Craig Counsell also has Clay Holmes, Shota Imanaga, and David Peterson in the mix.
The bigger edge may be in the bullpen. San Diego can line up Adrian Morejon, Bradgley Rodriguez, and closer Mason Miller, and that’s a nasty trio for a short series.
Miller, a two-time All-Star, led the NL with 38 saves and finished with a 1.67 ERA and 129 strikeouts in 70 innings. The Cubs have had bullpen trouble all year, ranking 23rd in MLB with 36 saves and leaning on a closer-by-committee approach for much of the season.
Aaron Civale, Daniel Palencia, Ryan Rolison, and Jacob Webb give Counsell options, but Chicago may have to get inventive late.
For Chicago, the key name is Pete Crow-Armstrong. The center fielder is the biggest player to watch for the Cubs, and after struggling in the 2025 postseason, he’ll be looking for a different result this time.
Crow-Armstrong became the seventh player in MLB history to finish a season with at least 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases. The Cubs will be hoping the 2025 playoff version was the exception.
On the Padres’ side, Fernando Tatis Jr. arrives hot. He caught fire in September, hitting .337/.413/.652 with eight home runs after a slower start power-wise earlier in the season.
He’s been even better at home, with an .864 OPS at Petco Park compared with .796 on the road. If San Diego wins this series, Tatis is the kind of player who could drive it.
The Cubs’ 5-1 mark against the Padres this season looks strong on paper, but the context matters. These teams haven’t met since before the All-Star break, and San Diego has been a different club since then. With the Padres’ bullpen advantage and the Cubs’ pitching questions, this one sets up as a tight series that tilts toward the home team.
Prediction: Padres in three.
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