The Padres’ first half has been defined by the kind of swing that can make a season feel two different ways at once. San Diego opened with four losses in its first five games, then caught fire in April, ripped off an 18-7 month and rode an eight-game winning streak all the way into sole possession of first place in the NL West over the Dodgers.
That surge is long gone now. Two months later, Los Angeles has built a 14-game cushion, while the Padres sit a game under .500 in third place after dropping eight of their last 10.
A lot of the story has been ugly on the surface. The rotation has looked thin, the depth behind the top names has been exposed, and several of the club’s biggest bats have not carried their weight. Right fielder/second baseman Fernando Tatis Jr., third baseman Manny Machado, center fielder Jackson Merrill and shortstop Xander Bogaerts have all severely underperformed, and the offense has become the worst in baseball by the numbers.
But if there’s one part of this team that has held up, it’s the bullpen. It remains one of the best units in the sport, and right-hander Mason Miller is the headliner. He has been every bit the shutdown closer San Diego needed, and ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle made him the Padres’ midseason MVP as well as the club’s only All-Star-caliber performer by his AXE rating system.
AXE, which weighs bWAR, fWAR, win probability added and championship probability added, gave Miller a 122 rating - the only Padres mark above the 120 threshold for All-Star-caliber performance. Doolittle also pointed out just how rare Miller’s run has been.
“Even though the amazing season put up by Toronto's Louis Varland means Miller ranks only second among relievers in AXE, there is no one you'd rather have on the hill to close out a game,” Doolittle wrote Wednesday. “He has a chance to strike out at least 100 more batters than he walks, which, for a reliever, is rare.”
The numbers back that up. Miller is 23-for-23 in save chances, owns a 0.96 ERA and 0.80 WHIP, and has piled up a 16.5 K/9 across 37.2 innings.
Still, the bigger issue for San Diego is obvious. The bullpen can only do so much when the stars aren’t starring, and Doolittle said as much.
“The Padres can't win without their stars starring, and we've been seeing the consequences of that lately.”
The Padres are still alive in the race, sitting 4.5 games out of the third NL wild card spot. But if they’re going to make anything of this season, the second half has to look a lot different than the first.
In Other News...
Padres Depth Shakeup Could Be Just The Start Of More Moves
The Padres minor league depth chart got a noticeable reset this week, with a cluster of moves that touched multiple levels of the system. Kannon Kemp was reinstated from the injured list, Johan Moreno moved up to Triple-A, and left-handers Ryan Och and Jamie Hitt both advanced to Double-A, giving San Diego a clearer look at some arms it wants to keep moving.
Jos Leclerc is also working his way back from shoulder surgery, and his return could force another round of decisions as the organization sorts out roles and innings across the system. With the draft signing deadline approaching, the Padres may not be done churning the bottom of the roster, and these moves feel like the first part of a larger shuffle rather than the last. [Read more 🡒]
Padres Could Finally Make The Deadline Move Their Lineup Desperately Needs
As the trade deadline approaches, the Padres are still searching for a lineup upgrade that can change the feel of their offense, and one name from a division rival has started to surface in the conversation. The fit is obvious on paper: a productive outfielder in his prime, the kind of bat San Diego has been trying to add, and a player the front office has already evaluated closely in the recent past.
The complication is just as obvious. Dealing within the NL West is never simple, especially when the target is coming off a strong season and comes with years of team control still attached. ESPNs Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan have both suggested there is at least a real chance this gets done before the deadline, but for the Padres the harder part may be turning interest into something the Giants would actually accept. [Read more 🡒]
Royals Could Face A Brutal Deadline Call On Reliable Starter
The Padres are still shopping for rotation help as the deadline approaches, and the need is easy to understand. Injuries have thinned the staff and the depth behind the front end has not offered much cushion, so San Diego is casting a wide net for a starter who can take the ball regularly and steady things over the stretch run.
One name that has surfaced is Michael Wacha, a familiar arm with a track record of giving a club dependable innings and a contract that runs through 2027 with a club option for 2028. Any move of that sort would come down to price as much as fit, especially with San Diego trying to balance urgency against the cost of adding another established starter. [Read more 🡒]