For one month, Walker Buehler looked like he might have found something again.
San Diego Padres fans had every reason to lean in after his June run, when the soon-to-be 32-year-old turned in five outings that felt a lot more like the old version of him. Over those five starts, Buehler struck out 27 batters in 26.1 innings and posted a 1.71 ERA. That was his best month since August 2021, at least among months with five starts, and it even included a June 26 outing against his former Dodgers in which he allowed one run over 5.1 innings.
Then July hit, and the shine came off fast.
In three outings this month, Buehler has given up 20 runs in 11 innings. His strikeout-to-walk number sits at 11/9, plus an intentional walk, and the Padres are left trying to figure out what changed so quickly.
The simplest answer is that this is the reality of a pitcher whose body has already taken a brutal beating. Buehler has had two Tommy John surgeries, along with major shoulder and hip issues over the last two years.
At some point, for a pitcher in his 30s, that kind of wear starts to show up in the results. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’s dealing with a fresh injury right now.
It means the accumulation has changed him.
That June stretch may have been the rare window where he briefly got around those problems and looked like himself again. But it may also have given Padres fans a little too much hope.
The numbers underneath it all are still rough. Buehler remains well below average in every pitching metric, and opponents are batting .393 against his fastball this season.
That pitch used to be the engine of his success in the late 2010s and early 2020s. Now, it’s not carrying him the way it once did.
So the June surge is worth remembering, but probably not for the reason Padres fans wanted. It may have been the last dominant month of his career, and that means expectations for the rest of the season should be kept low.
In Other News...
Red Sox Suddenly Face A Risky Deadline Reunion Debate
With the Red Sox in the playoff race and their pitching staff already looking strong, the trade chatter around San Diego has taken on an oddly familiar shape. Bogaerts remains tied to a hefty contract, which is part of why any move involving him would be complicated, but the idea of the Padres reshuffling their roster has naturally set off speculation about what kind of return they might seek if they decide to listen.
For Boston, the attraction is obvious enough even without a formal offer on the table. A right-handed bat would fit a need, and Mason Millers reputation as a dominant late-inning arm only adds to the appeal of any larger conversation. Nothing has been announced, but the possibility of a deadline deal that would force the Red Sox to weigh present needs against long-term cost is the kind of idea that tends to linger until the market finally settles. [Read more 🡒]
Padres Just Made A Telling Move Before A Defining Braves Series
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The next test comes against Atlanta, and the club has already lined up its starters for that series, a sign the Padres are treating it like more than just another midseason set. Even with the recent surge of offense, there is still a sense around the team that the margin for error remains thin, which is why these moves and this matchup carry so much weight right now. [Read more 🡒]
Padres Face A Deadline Dilemma With One Young Arm At Center
With the trade deadline approaching, the Padres are being tied to the kind of pitching gamble that tends to define this time of year. Freddy Peraltas name has surfaced in speculation as a possible move piece, and the appeal is obvious from San Diegos side: a chance to buy low on a right-hander whose season has not gone the way anyone expected, while the market around him starts to shift.
The harder part is what it would cost, and that is where Kash Mayfield enters the conversation. The left-hander has quickly become one of the organizations more interesting young arms, a first-round pick from 2024 who has already reached the Futures Game and is working his way through High-A. For the Padres, this is the familiar deadline dilemma: whether a controllable prospect is worth surrendering for immediate help, especially when the other club may be ready to move on from a pitcher with no extension momentum. [Read more 🡒]