Manny Machado put together the kind of defensive season that usually gets rewarded in Gold Glove voting. This year, though, the Padres third baseman didn’t even make the finalist list.
The National League finalists at third base announced Wednesday were Alex Bregman, Javier Sanoja and Max Muncy. Bregman looks like a clean fit.
Sanoja does too. Muncy is the one that stands out for all the wrong reasons.
Machado, who turned 34 in July, had a strange overall season. His bat went in and out for long stretches, and his deep fly ball in the eighth inning of Game Four of the NLDS effectively closed the book on the Padres’ season.
That came right after David Ortiz said the Padres were toast, a comment Machado brushed off. Through all of that, though, his glove held up.
By the numbers, Machado was easily the strongest third baseman in the league. He finished with 10 Outs Above Average, the best mark among qualified third basemen in baseball.
He also posted a plus-8 Fielding Run Value, again the best among qualified third basemen. And while errors only tell part of the story, his three errors were the fewest of any qualified third baseman.
That mattered after he committed 16 errors last year and seemed to be sliding defensively.
Muncy’s case looks a lot thinner. He finished at minus-1 OAA and 0 FRV, which puts him basically at average.
His Defensive Runs Saved total was plus-2, while Machado’s was minus-3, so there is at least one metric that leans Muncy’s way. But Muncy’s value this season was tied to his bat, not his glove, and that bat was clearly better than Machado’s.
If only that were what this award was for.
Bregman and Sanoja are a different story. Bregman put up 9 OAA and 7 FRV.
Sanoja logged 6 OAA and 5 FRV in only 778.1 innings at third. So this isn’t about Machado somehow being robbed of a likely Gold Glove win; Bregman probably would have been the choice anyway.
Still, Machado had been tied with Bregman for the OAA lead when Bregman was picked in September, and Machado ultimately finished ahead of him there.
The odd part is how Muncy got in at all. Gold Gloves are decided 75 percent by voting and 25 percent by statistics.
The voting comes from managers and up to six coaches per team, and they can only vote within their own league while being barred from voting for their own players. The statistical piece comes from the SABR Defensive Index, which combines six defensive data sources into one number intended to measure runs saved against an average fielder.
That’s where the picture gets messy. The latest public SDI update came on August 9, and at that point Muncy ranked second among NL third basemen at 4.8.
Bregman was right behind him at 4.5. Sanoja sat fifth at 2.6.
Machado was 11th out of 14 at minus-1.6. Statcast loved Machado’s defense, but the other inputs did not.
The system built to balance out the voting appears to have pulled him down instead.
The human side of the process may have mattered too. Coaches and managers have long voted on reputation as much as performance, and Machado has never been the most universally liked opposing player.
That doesn’t prove it hurt him here, but it would make sense. It also wouldn’t be the first time he put together a strong defensive season that didn’t end with the recognition it deserved.
Machado has won two Gold Gloves, both with the Baltimore Orioles, with the last coming in 2015. He has now gone eight seasons in San Diego without adding a third, and it will be year nine before he gets another chance.
The winners will be announced on November 1, and Bregman seems the likeliest name to come out on top. That would be fair. But the finalist group is supposed to identify the three best, and this one clearly left out one while including another who probably didn’t belong.
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