Before the Padres can worry about who they might lose in the Rule 5 draft, baseball has to get through a new Collective Bargaining Agreement and the lockout that follows. The current deal expires Dec. 1, so the timing of the draft itself is still up in the air. Until the new CBA is ratified, San Diego can’t add a player in the Rule 5 draft or lose one.
That annual November scramble is still coming, though, and it usually forces teams to make some tough 40-man roster calls. Anyone not protected can be exposed, and the Padres have a handful of players who look like candidates to be added before the deadline.
One of the more interesting names is Tucker Musgrove, a seventh-round pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. He came back from Tommy John surgery and put together a strong 2025 season at Lake Elsinore, then finished his first full year as a pro in 2026 at Double-A San Antonio.
There, he went 0-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 15 games. With a hard-throwing relief mix that produced nearly two strikeouts per inning in the minors, he has the kind of arm that could draw Rule 5 attention if the Padres leave him unprotected.
The Padres also have some pitching decisions to make with more advanced arms who were slowed by injuries or uneven results. Gutierrez, 23, was limited to 13 starts in 2026 because of injuries, and his two Triple-A starts at El Paso ended with a 7.71 ERA. Even so, an extra tick of velocity could help him climb the depth chart, and given San Diego’s rotation needs, it wouldn’t be surprising if he gets added to the 40-man roster in November.
Jagger Haynes is in a similar spot. The 24-year-old was a non-roster invitee to spring training in February, then allowed opponents to hit .438 against him in three Cactus League appearances.
After that, he made 27 starts split between Double-A and Triple-A in 2026. His season line - 3-8, 4.80 ERA, 116 strikeouts in 135 innings - doesn’t jump off the page, but the Padres’ lack of rotation depth could push him forward faster than those numbers suggest.
Not every possible Rule 5 candidate is a pitcher. Braedon Karpathios, 23, is an undrafted outfielder listed at 5-foot-11 whose on-base skills came before his power.
He got his first Triple-A look this year and struggled badly in a 10-game sample, hitting .103/.212/.103. That kind of line probably doesn’t make him a likely Rule 5 target.
Then there’s Jake Cunningham, who led all Padres minor leaguers with 19 home runs in just 96 games between advanced Class-A Fort Wayne and San Antonio. The 24-year-old turned in a strong rebound season after being released from his minor league deal by the Baltimore Orioles a year ago. Still, he has never played at Triple-A, so any club taking him in the Rule 5 draft would be taking a real gamble.
In Other News...
Padres Farm System Debate Just Got Harder To Ignore
The Padres farm system conversation has taken on a sharper edge after El Pasos uneven season, one that exposed how thin the margin can be between encouraging development and organizational concern. The Chihuahuas finished 60-90 and stumbled badly in the second half, even as the offense managed to settle into the middle of the league in several categories and give the system at least a few signs of life.
Pitching was the bigger problem, with the staff posting a rough ERA and run differential that made it hard to find much comfort in the results. Still, there were individual bright spots worth noting, especially catcher Ethan Salas, who showed strong work on both sides of the ball before reaching San Diego, and Braedon Karpathios, whose late-season promotion offered another glimpse of a prospect with some upside. [Read more 🡒]
Padres Face A Tough Walker Buehler Call This Offseason
Walker Buehler gave the Padres exactly the kind of season that complicates an offseason. He took the ball 32 times and logged 153 2/3 innings, a workload that mattered as much as the improved ERA and WHIP he posted compared with earlier seasons. For a rotation that has been searching for stability, that kind of bounce-back makes him a real asset, and it also makes him more expensive at the negotiating table.
The problem for San Diego is that value cuts both ways. Buehlers strong year has raised his market, and the Padres are still weighing whether they want to commit to a multiyear deal or keep looking for starters who can consistently work deeper into games. Before they sit down to talk contract, the club would be wise to set a firm price and have other rotation plans in place, because this is the kind of decision that can shape the whole offseason. [Read more 🡒]
Padres Just Reentered A Debate Fans Thought They Knew Already
Will Leitchs latest exercise at MLB.com put a fresh spotlight on a familiar Padres question: how close is this group, really, to turning talent into a title? In ranking the franchises without a World Series ring by their chances of winning one in 2027, he slotted San Diego third, a nod to the kind of core that can keep a club in the conversation even when the path is still messy. The Padres have the star power, with Fernando Tatis Jr. front and center, and they also have the kind of new ownership backdrop that can change the tone around a franchise in a hurry.
The debate, of course, is whether the rest of the roster can catch up to the ambition. San Diego still has real questions in the pitching rotation and some uncertainty in the lineup, which is why a lofty ranking can feel both flattering and unfinished at the same time. Leitchs list also included the Tampa Bay Rays, Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays and New York Mets near the top, but for Padres fans the more interesting part is what comes next: whether this is the kind of group that can justify the optimism, or just another version of a team that looks dangerous on paper and still needs more to break through. [Read more 🡒]