The Padres have a winter problem, and it starts at the top of the rotation.
After a strong second half in the 2026 season, San Diego has a chance to turn that momentum into something bigger in 2027. But there’s one mistake the front office can’t repeat: trying to patch together a rotation with a stack of low-cost rebound bets instead of landing a true frontline starter.
That formula already showed its limits last year. The Padres rolled the dice on German Marquez and Griffin Canning, while also bringing in Walker Buehler on a minor league deal.
None of those moves carried big financial risk, and Buehler was a useful pickup. But all three finished with ERAs above 4.00, and Marquez and Canning combined for just 141.2 innings.
Neither of them played a role in the postseason.
That’s the danger with bargain hunting. Those kinds of moves can help around the edges. They become a problem when a team asks too many of them to hit at once.
San Diego felt that in the playoffs. In the National League Division Series loss to the Milwaukee Brewers, the Padres’ starting pitchers logged only 15 of the team’s 34.2 innings, not counting relief work from Robbie Ray and Michael King. It was a blunt reminder of what happens when the rotation isn’t built to carry its share.
The season-long numbers told the same story. Padres starters finished 21st in MLB with a 4.42 ERA.
Milwaukee’s starters, by comparison, were fifth at 3.61. San Diego had enough overall talent to hang with anyone, but the rotation wasn’t constructed to match the best clubs start after start.
That left the bullpen doing a ton of heavy lifting every night, and over the length of a season, that only gets you so far.
This winter, King is expected to be a free agent, and keeping him has to be one of San Diego’s biggest priorities. Still, bringing him back cannot be the whole plan. Replacing what he provides would be hard enough on its own, and the Padres can’t act like one move solves the entire problem.
They need real starting pitching no matter what happens with King.
That means going after an ace, even if it costs real money. Tarik Skubal is the headliner everyone knows about, and landing him would change everything.
But San Diego can’t let the name matter more than the mission. If the Padres don’t get Skubal, they still need to pay for that level of impact or find it through a trade.
An ace has to be the first priority. If they can add another top starter on top of that, even better.
Right now, the list of certain returners is short. If King leaves, Randy Vasquez and Joe Musgrove are the only guaranteed starters back.
Yu Darvish could return, and the Padres also have a $14 million player option on Nick Pivetta. Beyond that, there are a lot of unknowns.
In other words, San Diego isn’t just shopping for depth. It has to build most of a rotation from scratch. And this time, it can’t afford to do it on the cheap.
In Other News...
Padres Owners Just Raised The Stakes For A Huge Offseason
The Padres new principal owners, Kwanza Jones and Jos E. Feliciano, used a letter to season-ticket members to put their intentions in plain language: they want a roster built to chase a World Series championship. It was a notable message for a fan base that has heard plenty about ambition in recent years, but not always seen it matched with the results on the field.
They also acknowledged the clubs recent performance and said they expect to make significant moves this offseason to improve the team. Pitcher Joe Musgrove has voiced confidence that the new ownership group is serious about winning, and now the real test is whether that conviction turns into the kind of roster changes Padres fans have been waiting for. [Read more 🡒]
Padres Offseason Buzz Now Centers On One Rumor Fans Needed Clarified
As the Padres get deeper into an offseason already defined by payroll questions and roster speculation, one name has surfaced in the chatter: a Yankees outfielder who is expected to hit free agency. The connection has only added to the intrigue around San Diegos plans, especially with talk circulating about the club potentially looking to move money off the books while trying to keep its core competitive.
Manny Machado, though, is not viewed as a realistic trade candidate, even with those larger-contract discussions in the background. Elsewhere on the roster front, Ty France and Freddy Fermin have given the club something more concrete to celebrate, with both standing as Gold Glove finalists and winners set to be announced on Nov. 1. [Read more 🡒]
Padres Face Two Tricky Veteran Decisions That Could Reshape This Roster
Gavin Sheets gave the Padres a useful look this season, but his place on the roster is still far from settled as the club weighs a broader push toward getting younger. The outfielder and DH has been dealing with foot injuries, though the current expectation is that he can avoid surgery and be ready for spring training, which at least keeps him in the conversation heading into the winter.
Nick Pivettas situation is even more pressing, because the Padres have to sort out his contract shortly after the World Series while also monitoring elbow and forearm issues. His deal includes options, and a renegotiation is on the table, which leaves San Diego with a veteran pitching decision that could shape both the rotation and the payroll before the offseason really gets moving. [Read more 🡒]