Padres Enter 2026 With Payroll Pressures, Ownership Questions, and Eyes on the Future
With pitchers and catchers set to report in less than a week, the San Diego Padres find themselves in a familiar yet frustrating position: high expectations, a high payroll, and limited flexibility. The offseason has been quiet, and for good reason.
While the Friar Faithful are eager to see upgrades, the front office-led by president of baseball operations and GM A.J. Preller-is operating under tight financial constraints and looming uncertainty at the ownership level.
Let’s unpack where things stand, what’s holding the Padres back, and what could lie ahead.
Ownership in Transition
The Padres are in the middle of a significant organizational shift. After the World Series, the Seidler family announced that the franchise would be put up for sale.
That process just cleared a major hurdle, as a lawsuit involving Matthew and Robert Seidler and their sister-in-law Sheel Seidler has been mostly settled. That resolution could pave the way for a smoother sale process, but until a new ownership group is in place, the front office is likely to remain cautious with big-ticket moves.
Why the Quiet Offseason?
The Padres made it clear they still want to contend in 2026, but they’re not going to do it by adding another massive contract that could complicate the franchise’s valuation. That’s why we haven’t seen a splashy free agent signing or blockbuster trade this winter. The financial handcuffs are real.
The team’s 2026 luxury tax payroll is already hovering just under $260 million-just shy of last year’s mark that triggered nearly $7 million in tax penalties. That’s not a number you typically see from a team that’s sitting idle, but the reality is, much of that money is tied up in long-term deals.
Here’s a look at the nine players commanding the biggest chunks of the payroll this season (figures represent average annual value):
- Manny Machado: $31 million
- Xander Bogaerts: $25.4 million
- Michael King: $25 million
- **Fernando Tatis Jr.
**: $24.2 million
- Joe Musgrove: $20 million
- Yu Darvish: $18 million
- Jackson Merrill: $15 million
- Nick Pivetta: $13.7 million
- Jake Cronenworth: $11.4 million
That’s over $182 million committed to just nine players-four of whom (Machado, Bogaerts, Tatis Jr., and Merrill) are locked in through 2032. It’s a top-heavy roster, and while there’s plenty of talent in that group, it doesn’t leave a lot of room to maneuver under the current financial structure.
The Trade Route: Preller’s Best Bet?
When free agency isn’t an option, the trade market becomes your playground-and few GMs are more aggressive in that space than Preller. Just last year, he sent top prospect Leodalis De Vries to Oakland for Mason Miller, a young, high-upside power arm who helped solidify the pitching staff and push the Padres into the postseason.
That kind of bold, calculated risk is Preller’s calling card. And with limited payroll flexibility, it might be his most viable path again in 2026 if the team is in the hunt come July.
The recent additions of Marco Gonzales and Miguel Andujar aren’t headline-grabbers, but they’re smart depth plays-low-cost, low-risk moves that could pay off over a long season. Think of them as insurance policies for a team that’s trying to stay competitive without adding to its luxury tax burden.
Looking Ahead: 2027 and Beyond
While 2026 might be tight financially, there’s light at the end of the tunnel. Here’s how the Padres’ projected payroll looks in the coming years:
- 2027: $221.1 million
- 2028: $197.5 million
- 2029: $132 million
- 2030: $132.5 million
That’s a clear downward trend, thanks to expiring contracts and potential player opt-outs. Ramon Laureano is set to hit free agency after this season, and the team holds an option on Kyle Hart. Together, those two deals could free up about $40 million.
Michael King, who signed a multi-year deal, has player options for 2027 and 2028. Whether he exercises them will depend on his performance and health, particularly with the ongoing concerns about his right arm.
If he opts out, he’d be leaving $58 million on the table-no small decision. But if the Padres want to lock him in long-term, don’t be surprised if extension talks pick up once the ownership situation is resolved.
King is too important to the future of this rotation to let walk easily.
Then there’s Joe Musgrove-a hometown favorite and a steady presence in the rotation. He’s under contract through 2027, but that’s not as far off as it sounds. His performance over the next two seasons will dictate whether the Padres re-up or use that $20 million annually to pursue a new frontline arm.
The Bottom Line
The Padres are walking a tightrope in 2026. They want to win.
They need to stay financially responsible. And they’re doing it all while navigating an ownership change that could reshape the franchise’s direction.
Preller’s not sitting on his hands-he’s playing the long game. That means calculated trades, depth signings, and a watchful eye on the books. The real flexibility comes in 2027 and beyond, when payroll commitments begin to ease and a new ownership group will likely be in place.
For now, the Padres are betting that their core-Machado, Tatis Jr., Bogaerts, Merrill, and King-can carry the load. If they stay healthy and produce, San Diego could still be in the thick of the postseason race.
But make no mistake: this is a franchise in transition, and 2026 is about more than just wins and losses. It’s about setting the stage for what comes next.