Padres Face Another Farm System Gamble To Fix Their Rotation

Trading for Hunter Greene could transform the Padres' rotation, but would the Reds sacrifice their future for it?

Hunter Greene looks like the kind of arm the Padres should be chasing if they’re serious about stabilizing a rotation that has been held together by duct tape and determination. Michael King and Walker Buehler are the only San Diego starters working on a normal schedule, and that leaves the rest of the group looking more like a rotating bullpen experiment than a playoff staff.

A frontline starter is not a luxury for this team. It’s the need.

That’s why Jim Bowden of The Athletic landing on Greene as San Diego’s best target if A.J. Preller decides to buy makes plenty of sense on the surface. Greene has the stuff, the age and the contract to give the Padres an ace beyond this season.

The problem is what it would take to get him out of Cincinnati.

Bowden’s trade logic runs into a wall when he suggests the Reds should move Greene to get younger and cheaper. Greene is 26 years old, and his deal runs through 2028 with a club option for 2029.

Cincinnati would owe him $15.3 million in 2027 and $16.3 million in 2028 before deciding on a $21 million option. That is not the kind of contract that screams salary dump.

In baseball terms, it’s a bargain.

And if the Reds are supposedly looking for younger, controllable talent, what exactly are they trying to land in return? A prospect who might one day become a young, controllable frontline starter?

They already have that in-house. In fact, they have another one in Chase Burns, who just signed a 7-year, $105 million extension.

There is a case to be made that Cincinnati would want to move Greene because of the money, but that argument doesn’t really hold up either. His deal covers what should be his prime, and he already has an All-Star nod plus a 2.76 ERA in 2025. That combination of upside and control is exactly what teams spend years trying to find.

The medical picture adds another layer. Greene had elbow surgery in March, and since returning he has a 7.06 ERA over four starts.

His latest outing fell apart in the sixth inning against St. Louis, which only reopened the questions about how quickly he can get back to his old level.

Even with that uncertainty, the Reds still don’t have much reason to move him at a discount. MLB.com described Cincinnati’s deadline approach as a retool instead of a full teardown, and that matters here.

Expiring contracts are the obvious pieces to shop. Greene was placed in the more complicated “less obvious” bucket.

Available, technically yes. Available in a way that makes a deal easy?

Not even close.

So if the Padres want him, they would have to blow the doors off the market. That means getting into the top of San Diego’s system fast, with Ethan Salas and Kruz Schoolcraft likely in the conversation and probably more depth attached.

The Padres already shipped out Leo De Vries, then one of the game’s premier prospects, in the Mason Miller blockbuster. Miller has been excellent, but the move carved another hole in a farm system Preller has already tapped hard for big-league help.

Bowden even floated the idea of San Diego moving Miller and King to rebuild the organization, then turning around and dealing more prospects for Greene. That is a lot of deadline juggling, and it starts to feel like roster math more than roster building.

There is a clean baseball argument for turning an elite closer’s value into a controllable starter. Starting pitching matters more, and Greene would affect far more innings than Miller. But Cincinnati has little use for a dominant closer while it’s retooling, which means San Diego would likely need separate trades or a three-team setup to make the whole thing work.

Greene fits the Padres. No question about that. The issue is that the kind of package it would take to pry him away from the Reds may not fit what Cincinnati is trying to do at all.

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