The Padres are staring down a winter of uncertainty, and it has less to do with free agency than with the sport’s labor fight. Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association are headed toward an expected lockout, and if that happens, it could reshape how San Diego plans its spending and builds its roster for years to come.
The current collective bargaining agreement expires on Nov. 30 at 11:59 p.m. ET, and the sides have not reached a new deal. Back in March, Jake Cronenworth, who serves on the executive MLB Players Association subcommittee, told the Times of San Diego that the league had already informed players they would be locked out this offseason.
MLB’s latest proposal, updated in November, included a 50-50 revenue split and a salary cap of $258.2 million with a salary floor of $180.2 million. Eight teams, including the Padres, would have to cut spending under that framework. The league also pushed to begin the system in 2028, not immediately.
“We recognize that clubs will need a full offseason to prepare to operate within the cap and floor system,” MLB spokesman Glen Caplin said. “Therefore, with this offseason already underway, we proposed today to begin the cap and floor system in 2028. This proposal would allow a smoother transition into the cap and floor system without delaying key player benefits, including earlier free agency, a $1 million minimum salary, a 30% increase to the pre-arbitration bonus pool, and transactional reform that will reduce roster churn.
“The projected salary cap and floor for 2028 continues to provide more money for Major League players while leveling the playing field and giving more teams the ability to participate in the free-agent market and retain their homegrown stars so that every fan believes their team has a fair chance to win it all.”
The players shot back quickly. MLBPA has made clear it wants to keep baseball as the only major North American sport without a salary cap, and it rejected the updated proposal soon after it was presented.
“Coming off another incredible season of baseball, MLB owners continue to propose blowing up the current system and replacing it with one designed to line their pockets and increase their franchise values,” the MLBPA said in a statement. “Players stand ready to negotiate in good faith toward a new CBA that will capitalize on our sport's unprecedented momentum and benefit players, clubs, and fans alike.”
There’s also a wrinkle in the numbers themselves. The cap and floor MLB is floating are only projections, and the way revenue is defined remains a major sticking point. Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors noted that the figures don’t tell the whole story.
“Those cap/floor numbers would include annual contributions to the pre-arb bonus pool and benefits to players, meaning the actual cap/floor would be lower than those suggested figures,” Adams wrote.
For San Diego, the immediate damage may not be as severe as it first sounds. Based on the Padres’ 2026 spending, the club would only need to trim $8 million under the new proposal. That matters for a team that has long looked for ways to shed payroll, especially with $108 million per season tied to just five players through at least the 2030 campaign.
The ownership picture adds another layer. New owners Kwanza Jones and Jose E. Feliciano recently told season ticket holders they are committed to winning, though it remains unclear how much financial muscle that promise will bring.
If a salary cap becomes reality, it would change the way president of baseball operations AJ Preller approaches the 2027 roster no matter when the season starts or how much money Jones and Feliciano are willing to commit. And with starting pitching still a problem and the lineup needing more offense - both issues that stood out in October - Preller can only do so much before the next labor agreement is settled.
The deadline is closing in, and the Padres will be watching like everyone else to see whether MLB locks out its players for the first time since 2021. A work stoppage could even lead to canceled games, something baseball has not seen since the 1994 players’ strike that carried into 1995.
In 2021, the expectation was that games would be lost, but after MLB first announced cancellations, Opening Day was pushed back and the league still got in a full 162-game season. If the sport wants that same outcome for 2027, both sides may need to find common ground by March.
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