The San Diego Padres are heading into the offseason with a clear priority: rebuild the starting rotation. What they do next could mean swinging big for a top-end arm, bringing back Michael King after he declined his player option on Thursday, or taking a more measured route in free agency.
That’s where Trevor Rogers enters the conversation.
He hasn’t been connected to San Diego as loudly as some other names, mostly because there was previously mutual interest in a return to Baltimore. But if that deal doesn’t get done and Rogers remains on the market, he could become a real option for the Padres - with the usual pitcher caveats attached.
Rogers is exactly the kind of arm that forces a front office to weigh upside against uncertainty. Since 2021, he has landed on the injured list six times, and durability has shadowed his career.
That’s a big reason he still doesn’t carry the kind of star power some of his talent suggests. Even so, he made an All-Star team, is heading into his age-29 season, and picked up Cy Young votes in 2025.
The talent is real, and so is the upside if he stays on the mound.
Cost is part of the equation, too. Rogers would not command the kind of money a pitcher like Tarik Skubal would, and probably wouldn’t land in the same range as King either.
But he’s still going to want a multi-year contract, and that’s where the decision gets tricky. Would San Diego want to commit three to five years to a pitcher whose health has been such a persistent issue during his prime?
His 2026 season wasn’t eye-popping on the surface. He finished with a 4.03 ERA over 30 starts.
But the underlying numbers were stronger: a 3.45 FIP and a 1.185 WHIP. He also finished fast, which matters.
In September, he faced three playoff teams and posted a 2.53 ERA across five starts, highlighted by an eight-inning, 10-strikeout performance against the Brewers, the World Series champions.
There’s also a strong track record against division opponents that should catch San Diego’s attention. Against the Dodgers, Rogers has a 2.08 ERA with 20 strikeouts in 17.1 innings.
In four starts against the Giants, he owns a 2.18 ERA. Even against the Padres, he has worked to a 1.65 ERA over three outings.
So the case for Rogers is straightforward: upside, age, and a profile that still suggests plenty left in the tank. The question is whether the injury history is enough to keep the Padres from going down that road long term.
In Other News...
Padres Suddenly Have A Jake Cronenworth Question They Can't Ignore
The Padres are already getting an early look at one of the quieter complications of the offseason market, with Jim Bowden projecting Brandon Lowe for a three-year, $45 million deal and naming San Diego among the best fits. On paper, Lowe makes sense for a club looking to add offense and flexibility, but any discussion of him in a Padres uniform quickly turns into a bigger infield conversation. His arrival would not just add another proven bat, it would also force the team to map out where Jake Cronenworth fits in a group that is already crowded with moving parts.
Cronenworth has long been valuable to San Diego because of his ability to handle different spots, but a Lowe addition would sharpen the question rather than soften it. The Padres would have to weigh lineup fit, defensive alignment and payroll, along with the possibility that a move this significant could ripple into trade discussions elsewhere on the roster. For a front office that has tried to balance competitiveness with financial flexibility, this is the kind of decision that can shape more than one position at once. [Read more 🡒]
Padres Suddenly Have A Rotation Problem They Can't Ignore
Michael Kings decision to decline his player option leaves the Padres facing a rotation opening they did not want to deal with this winter. After serving as a key starter for San Diego, King turned down the remaining two years and $58 million on his deal and will instead collect a $5 million buyout, putting him on the free-agent market and removing one of the most reliable arms from the staff.
For a team that has spent plenty of time trying to piece together stability on the mound, losing King is a real problem, not just a roster note. His exit creates a significant vacancy in the rotation and forces San Diego to confront a question it cant put off for long: where does that innings load now go, and how quickly can the Padres fill it? [Read more 🡒]
Padres Face A Costly Decision On Ty Frances Return
The Padres already spent the offseason watching a long list of familiar names head for free agency, and Ty France is among the most notable. A left-handed bat with a track record in San Diego, France is now projected to land a multi-year deal that would mark a clear step up from his previous earnings, which makes any reunion a more complicated conversation than a simple homecoming.
Still, there appears to be genuine interest on both sides in exploring it. France has said he would like to stay with the Padres, and the organization has shown it would consider bringing him back, but there has been no official agreement yet. For a club that has already lost Adrian Morejon and several others, the question is whether sentiment and fit are enough to justify the kind of commitment France now figures to command. [Read more 🡒]