The Padres’ season now runs straight through Nick Pivetta.
After Jackson Chourio walked off San Diego for a 4-3 Brewers win in Game 2, the Padres head home down 2-0 in the best-of-five NLDS. One more loss and it’s over, which is exactly why Game 3 has become the kind of must-win people usually misuse. This one really fits.
Pivetta gets the ball with San Diego’s year hanging in the balance, and on paper the timing is encouraging. Since coming off the IL in early September, he has posted a 1.64 ERA over 22 innings with 22 strikeouts and four walks, and that includes his start in the Wild Card series. He has looked like himself again.
The problem is Milwaukee.
In five career starts against the Brewers, Pivetta owns an 8.76 ERA. It would be easy to pin all of that on one disastrous outing in July 2017, when he was a 24-year-old with the Phillies at Miller Park and things fell apart quickly. He struck out the first four Brewers he faced, then got hit for eight runs, including Ryan Braun’s grand slam, and finished the night with nine runs allowed over five innings.
But that game is not the whole story. Even if you remove it entirely, Pivetta has still allowed 15 runs in 19.2 innings against Milwaukee, with 19 strikeouts and 11 walks. That still leaves him with a 6.86 ERA against the Brewers, which is better, but not exactly comforting.
The more recent starts keep pointing in the same direction. He allowed four runs in five innings in 2022 with Boston.
In 2023, Milwaukee tagged him for three runs on seven hits over 5.2 innings. In 2024, it was five runs on seven hits in 3.1 innings.
Last year, he gave up three runs on four hits in 5.2 innings, but also walked five. That matters, because even in stretches when Pivetta has been at his best, this lineup has still found ways to make him work.
Walks have been the common thread. Pivetta has issued 14 free passes to the Brewers in those 24.2 innings.
That stands out even more when stacked against the eight walks he had in 34.2 innings this season overall. Milwaukee forces pitchers into uncomfortable counts, and Game 2 offered another reminder of how patient this group can be.
Mason Miller, one of the best closers in baseball, couldn’t get much chase before Chourio ended it.
There is a reasonable pushback, of course. Five starts across nine seasons and three different uniforms is a tiny sample.
One rough outing a year can be coincidence as much as pattern. And Pivetta did come back from months on the IL this season and look sharp right away, throwing five shutout innings in his first start back and never really backing off from there.
Still, the workload angle matters too. Pivetta only made it into the fourth inning against the Cubs last week, allowing one run while dealing with traffic before the bullpen took over.
That was manageable with a series lead. It gets harder now, especially with Miller coming off a 40-pitch outing.
The off day helps, but it does not erase the strain. San Diego would love five or six innings here to help set up the bullpen properly.
Dustin May will start for Milwaukee, and he has allowed just three runs in 22 innings against the Padres this season. He also was not particularly good for the Brewers after they acquired him. So this is still a game the Padres can win, but the offense has to show up, and it has largely been missing through the first two games.
Pivetta does not need to erase nine years of history. He just needs to give the Padres something cleaner than what he has usually managed against Milwaukee.
September says he can do it. The Brewers’ track record says they may have another answer.
San Diego’s season may come down to which version shows up.
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Nick Pivetta gets the ball in a familiar kind of pressure spot, making his second postseason start after coming back from injury. For the Padres, the margin is thin enough already, and losing a regular from the opening lineup only adds to the unease as they try to keep their season moving in the right direction. [Read more 🡒]