The Padres have every reason to kick the tires on Freddy Peralta. They also need to know exactly where the line is.
San Diego’s rotation is thin enough that the club can’t afford to ignore a possible upgrade. Michael King is basically the only starter the Padres can count on right now, several arms are on the shelf, and the team has already leaned on a piggyback setup just to keep the group afloat.
Peralta would help. The question is how much help he really is, and whether the Padres would be paying for a name instead of the pitcher he’s been this season.
Because the 2025 version of Peralta has not looked like an ace. He’s 5-9 with a 4.99 ERA in 22 starts, and “Five inning Freddy” has not completed five innings in four of his last five outings.
Over his past seven starts, he’s carrying a rough 7.93 ERA. That’s not the profile of someone who should cost a premium package, no matter how familiar the reputation may be.
There is still a case for betting on the upside. Peralta is 30, and the track record that made him attractive in the first place didn’t disappear overnight.
For the Padres, that matters because they don’t need him to be a workhorse. Four or five competitive innings might be enough for this team to stay in the postseason race.
The Mets, of course, already paid to get him. In January, they acquired Peralta and Tobias Myers from the Milwaukee Brewers for Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat, two prospects with real value.
At the time, New York had every reason to think it was getting the pitcher who went 17-6 with a 2.70 ERA last season. Instead, the production in Queens has been uneven, and the warning signs go beyond the ERA.
His fastball velocity has dipped, his strikeout rate has gone down, and his slider has been getting hit hard. Earlier in July, opposing hitters posted a .601 expected slugging percentage against that pitch, up from .219 last season.
That’s why the Brewers’ reported interest in bringing him back matters. Milwaukee knows Peralta better than anyone, and if the organization that developed him and watched him pitch for eight seasons thinks there’s something left to unlock, that’s worth noting. It does not mean San Diego should bid against itself.
Miguel Mendez should be the ceiling for the Padres. That’s a real offer: a strong prospect with upper-level experience who could help a big league staff down the road.
It would hurt to give him up, and that’s exactly the kind of package the Mets might actually consider. New York could also hold Peralta, issue a qualifying offer, and take the compensatory draft pick if he signs elsewhere.
San Diego has to top that value, but only by a reasonable margin.
There is also a version of the deal involving Alex McCoy and Jagger Haynes that makes sense. That would send New York a young arm with upside and a 24-year-old outfielder who might benefit from a fresh start.
What the Padres cannot do is stack Mendez with another piece. That’s where a sensible gamble turns into deadline panic. And if the Mets ask for Ethan Salas, Kash Mayfield or Kruz Schoolcraft, the conversation should be over immediately.
This is the kind of market A.J. Preller should be exploring.
Peralta’s value has dropped, San Diego needs rotation help, and the upside is still there without requiring a blockbuster return. He’s worth the swing.
He’s not worth another top-of-the-system haul.
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Machado has helped drive that shift with timely hits in recent games, including a big night against the Marlins when he delivered an RBI double and later tied the game with a two-run homer in the eighth before Jackson Merrill put San Diego ahead. Even with the trade deadline chatter hovering around the club, Machado said the focus inside the room is on winning, not on wondering what A.J. Preller might do next. [Read more 🡒]