The Padres are heading into a winter full of roster questions, but none may loom larger than what to do with Nick Pivetta.
San Diego’s payroll is already carrying major commitments, with Manny Machado owed nearly $40 million a season for the foreseeable future, and Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill all attached to significant salaries for years to come. Against that backdrop, the club has to decide whether Pivetta is worth keeping at $14 million, or whether that money is better spent elsewhere.
Pivetta’s deal, which he signed ahead of the 2025 season, was for four years and $55 million. It also included a stipulation that came into play in August, after he spent more than 130 straight days on the injured list. Because of that, San Diego can void the final two years and $32 million of the contract, and his $14 million player option has now been turned into a club option.
The right-hander’s first season in San Diego looked like a strong one. In 31 starts, he set career highs in bWAR at 5.0, innings pitched at 181.2 and ERA at 2.87.
But his 2025 season quickly went sideways after that. He made just four starts before landing on the injured list for nearly five months because of a flexor strain in his elbow.
That injury history is now at the center of the decision. Pivetta is set to turn 34 on Valentine’s Day, and the 2027 season still does not have a clear starting date. San Diego has to weigh the upside of keeping a proven starter against the risk attached to his elbow.
There is also the broader pitching picture to consider. The Padres got poor results from their starting rotation this season, which helped push their bullpen to the second-highest usage rate in baseball and the highest in the National League. Even so, the relievers handled the load well during the regular season, logging 647.2 innings and posting a 3.31 ERA, which ranked fourth-best in baseball.
That kind of workload can take a toll, though, and the postseason only added to it. If the starters had been able to work deeper into games, the bullpen would have had more rest and perhaps more of the dominance fans had come to expect.
Pivetta’s late-season stretch offered a reminder of what he can still provide. He posted a 1.45 ERA over his final four regular-season starts, covering 18.2 innings, and then struck out eight while allowing three earned runs in two postseason outings spanning 7.2 innings.
The same logic that applies to Pivetta also applies to San Diego’s other free-agent starters, but the Padres will need to be selective. Smart spending on essential pieces is going to be the theme of the offseason.
With most of the rotation headed for free agency, the call on Pivetta could end up being one of the most important the Padres make this winter.
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