The qualifying offer picture on the pitching side is thin enough that it may come down to just one obvious name.
As teams start lining up their offseason decisions, they’ll have five days after the World Series to hand out qualifying offers, one-year deals set at a fixed rate tied to the average of the 125 highest salaries in MLB. MLBTR contributor Ethan Hullihen projects this year’s number at about $23.1MM.
Only players who spent the entire preceding season with the team can receive one, and the market consequences are real: a player who accepts gets full no-trade protection until June 15 of the following season, while a player who declines can bring draft compensation back to his old club if he signs elsewhere. For the team signing that qualified free agent, there are draft and possibly international bonus pool penalties depending on revenue sharing and luxury tax status.
On the pitching side, the class is so limited that there’s a real chance only one arm gets the tag. That’s a little surprising, considering starting pitching is the strongest part of the free-agent crop.
The catch is that many of the notable rental starters were moved at the deadline, which takes them out of qualifying-offer consideration entirely. That leaves one clear choice and a couple of names that require a closer look.
Trevor Rogers of the Orioles sits in the “no-doubter” bucket. He hasn’t turned into a Cy Young-level ace, but he has settled in as an above-average starter who can handle a full workload.
Rogers has made 27 starts and thrown 151 2/3 innings with a 4.15 ERA, while striking out 22% of hitters against just a 6% walk rate. The stuff isn’t overwhelming - his four-seam fastball averages 93.4 mph - and opponents have found some success against his changeup, which is his top secondary pitch.
Still, the fastball has good spin and helps him work above barrels, which has produced plenty of weak fly-ball contact.
His season has had some uneven stretches. Rogers opened the year badly around a two-week absence in April and May because of an illness.
Since the start of June, though, he’s been rolling, posting a 2.88 ERA over 103 innings with a 24.4% strikeout rate. Baltimore would probably take the $23.1MM salary if he accepted, but the more likely outcome is that he turns it down and looks for a multi-year deal.
The tougher decisions are in the bullpen, where Adrian Morejon of the Padres and David Bednar of the Yankees stand as the two best impending free agent relievers.
Morejon is the more intriguing contract case. He’ll be 28 next season and is coming off his third straight year with an ERA under 3.00.
In 78 2/3 innings, he’s posted a 2.86 ERA, struck out 30% of opposing batters, and paired that with an elite 59.4% ground-ball rate. His 99 mph sinker is the hardest fastball thrown by any left-handed pitcher in the sport.
A qualifying offer would be a riskier play for San Diego, especially with the club’s recent spending habits, but it could also be the first real test of how their new ownership handles the short-term payroll hit. The Padres also have a rotation to rebuild almost from scratch, though there’s at least a possibility they’d stretch Morejon out as a starter if they re-signed him.
Bednar’s case is different. He has been excellent in his first full season in the Bronx, going 33-for-36 in save chances and posting a 2.70 ERA over 63 1/3 innings.
He got off to a shaky start and had a rough stretch in early to mid-May, but the past three and a half months have been dominant: a 1.43 ERA and a 29.5% strikeout rate over his last 37 2/3 innings. The Yankees can probably live with a one-year deal at a lofty price for a reliever who will reach free agency before his age-32 season.
There are also a pair of long shots. The Reds held onto Brady Singer at the deadline, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that Cincinnati’s front office saw the qualifying offer as a realistic fallback.
Singer was in the middle of his best two-month stretch then, but since the deadline he has been hit hard, allowing a 6.00 ERA in seven starts. Overall, he’s sitting on a 5.03 ERA with a career-low 18.2% strikeout rate, and left-handed hitters have done a number on him.
Even if the Reds were considering the QO on August 3, that number would be tough to justify now.
Michael Soroka of the Diamondbacks has put together a solid season on a rate basis, logging 99 1/3 innings with a 3.53 ERA and a 23% strikeout rate. Arizona still needs multiple starting pitchers this offseason, and if Soroka had held up all year, he might have been in the qualifying-offer conversation.
But injuries have again been part of the story, with a glute strain and shoulder discomfort limiting him to 17 1/3 innings in the second half. A two-year deal at a lower annual salary would make more sense.
Then there’s the ineligible group, which includes players who were traded and/or have already been tagged with a qualifying offer before. Under the collective bargaining agreement, a player can only receive the QO once. Skubal, Gray, King if he opts out, Peralta, Holmes and Ray all would have been either locks or strong candidates had they been eligible.
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