After missing out on a potential deal for Nolan Arenado, the San Diego Padres find themselves with some financial flexibility - and they’re eyeing the starting rotation as the place to spend it.
While Arenado’s $11 million over two years wouldn’t have broken the bank, the Padres are reportedly shifting their focus toward pitching, looking to land a starter who could provide value without commanding top-tier dollars. Think more “under-the-radar impact” than headline-grabbing blockbuster.
Last offseason, we saw this exact strategy play out with Nick Pivetta - a late-market signing who inked a four-year, $55 million deal in mid-February. San Diego’s front office seems to be hoping for a similar scenario this winter: a quality arm still available deep into the offseason, and at the right price.
Target Range: $8M to $12M AAV
That’s the sweet spot the Padres are working with - an average annual value between $8 million and $12 million. Not exactly bargain-bin shopping, but certainly not in the Framber Valdez or Zac Gallen tier either. It’s a calculated middle ground, where experience and upside can still be found without overextending financially.
Three veteran right-handers have surfaced as potential fits: Nick Martinez, Lucas Giolito, and Justin Verlander. Each brings a different profile to the table - and each could help stabilize a rotation that’s looking for depth and reliability.
Nick Martinez: A Familiar Face
Martinez is no stranger to San Diego. He pitched for the Padres in 2022 and 2023, working as both a starter and reliever.
Last season with the Reds, he posted an ERA+ of 103 - right around league average - and limited hard contact, holding opponents to a 34.5% hard-hit rate. That kind of consistency and versatility could be exactly what the Padres need at the back end of the rotation.
He’s not flashy, but Martinez eats innings, keeps the ball in the yard, and knows the organization. If the Padres are looking for a steady arm who won’t break the bank, Martinez checks a lot of boxes.
Lucas Giolito: High Risk, High Reward
Giolito’s 2025 campaign was a mixed bag. He made 26 starts for the Red Sox, but questions about his durability and home run susceptibility linger.
Still, there’s reason for intrigue. His changeup was particularly effective last year, holding opposing hitters to a .194 batting average - a pitch that’s been a weapon for him when he’s right.
The upside here is clear. If the Padres believe they can help Giolito rediscover his All-Star form - or at least limit the damage when he misses - he could be a value play with legitimate mid-rotation potential.
The risk? He’s been inconsistent, and the long ball has been a problem.
But in the right environment, he could thrive.
Justin Verlander: The Veteran Wild Card
Then there’s Verlander. The future Hall of Famer is entering his age-43 season, but you wouldn’t know it from his second-half numbers.
After the All-Star break, he looked like vintage JV, posting a 2.99 ERA over 14 starts. That kind of late-season resurgence suggests there’s still gas in the tank - and if the Padres want leadership, playoff pedigree, and someone who’s been through every high-pressure moment imaginable, Verlander brings all of that and more.
Of course, there are questions. How much does he have left?
Can he stay healthy over a full season? And would he consider a deal in the Padres’ price range?
But if the stars align, Verlander could be a short-term difference-maker - even if he’s not the workhorse he once was.
The Bottom Line
The Padres aren’t swinging for the fences this time around. They’re playing the margins, looking for value in a market that still holds some intriguing arms. Whether it’s a reunion with Martinez, a bounce-back bet on Giolito, or a late-career run with Verlander, San Diego’s front office appears focused on making a smart, strategic addition to the rotation.
They’ve got money to spend - not a fortune, but enough to make a move. Now it’s about finding the right arm, at the right price, at the right time.