Could the Padres and Reds Be a Perfect Trade Match This Winter? Let’s Break It Down
The San Diego Padres have the stars. What they don’t have-at least not enough of-is depth.
As spring training inches closer, the Padres are staring at a roster that needs reinforcement, especially on the mound. The top of the rotation is solid with Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove, and Michael King, but after that?
It gets murky. And with no clear-cut pitching prospects knocking on the big-league door, the Padres are going to have to look outside the organization to shore things up.
Enter the Cincinnati Reds, a team flush with young, controllable starting pitching. On paper, this looks like a match worth exploring.
The Reds have arms to spare. The Padres have bullpen pieces and position players that could help balance out Cincinnati’s roster.
There’s a path here to a deal that could benefit both sides.
Let’s dig into what that might look like-and where the value lines up.
What the Padres Need: Affordable Arms, Rotation Stability
Let’s start with the obvious: San Diego needs starting pitching. Not just any arms, but cost-controlled starters who can eat innings and keep the Padres competitive in a loaded NL West. That’s exactly what the Reds can offer.
Hunter Greene is the headliner in Cincinnati’s rotation, and while he’s under a very team-friendly deal-$40 million through the next three seasons with a $21 million option for 2029-it’s unlikely the Reds are moving their homegrown ace. Greene is electric, and his contract gives the Reds every reason to hold on.
But beyond Greene, there are some intriguing names that could be in play.
Brady Singer, for one, is entering the final year of his deal. He’s not a long-term solution, but he’s a proven innings-eater, having thrown at least 153 innings in each of the last four seasons. For a Padres team that needs stability in the middle of the rotation, Singer would be a solid-if short-term-addition.
Then there’s the next tier of young arms: Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott. These are the names that could make a real difference.
Abbott is coming off a breakout campaign. The 26-year-old lefty went 10-7 with a 2.87 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and racked up a 5.6 WAR.
He made his first All-Star team and looked every bit like a frontline starter. With four years of team control remaining, he’s a valuable asset.
Lodolo, also a southpaw, posted a 9-8 record with a 3.33 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 28 starts. His 4.9 WAR speaks to just how effective he was. He has two years of service time left, and at 28 years old, he’s entering his prime.
Why would the Reds entertain moving either of them? Because they’ve got reinforcements ready.
Chase Burns, a top prospect who debuted last season with 67 strikeouts in just 43 innings, looks like the real deal. He’s not going anywhere-but his emergence makes someone else expendable.
Add in Brandon Williamson, Julian Aguiar, and top-10 prospects Rhett Lowder and Chase Petty, and you’ve got a logjam of young pitching talent in Cincinnati. If the Reds want to upgrade other parts of their roster, flipping one of their established arms makes a lot of sense.
What the Reds Need: Bullpen Help and Lefty Pop
The Reds’ rotation isn’t the problem. Their bullpen and lineup depth, though? That’s where they could use some help.
Jake Cronenworth could be a fit. The Reds recently moved on from Gavin Lux after a disappointing stint, and Cronenworth-who brings a left-handed bat and positional flexibility-could be a solid addition. He’s owed $12.285 million in 2026, and while that’s not cheap, it’s manageable if the Reds believe he can bounce back offensively.
Petco Park hasn’t done Cronenworth any favors. Moving to the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park could unlock more production. And with the right side of the Reds’ infield locked in-Elly De La Cruz and Ke’Bryan Hayes holding down shortstop and third-Cronenworth could slot in at second base or even play a utility role, depending on how Matt McLain and Sal Stewart develop.
The bullpen is another area where the Reds could use reinforcements. Yes, they’ve got Emilio Pagán and added Pierce Johnson this offseason, but there’s still room for upgrades.
The Padres could help there.
Jeremiah Estrada, with team control through 2029 and electric stuff, would be a strong addition to the Reds’ relief corps. Yuki Matsui and Wandy Peralta, both left-handers who were effective in 2025, could also be of interest. Matsui’s $5.75 million salary and Peralta’s $4.45 million tag for 2026 are reasonable for productive bullpen arms.
There are also a couple of position players who might intrigue Cincinnati.
Luis Campusano, a catcher with upside, could form a strong tandem with Tyler Stephenson. And Tirso Ornelas, a talented outfielder who hasn’t broken through in San Diego, might benefit from a change of scenery. Neither player made much of an impact in the majors last season, but both are ready for a longer look-and the Reds could be the team to give it to them.
The Verdict: A Deal That Makes Sense-If the Value Lines Up
This comes down to one question: How much do the Reds value Jake Cronenworth and the Padres’ bullpen arms?
Cronenworth’s contract runs through 2029 at $12.85 million annually. That’s a commitment, but if the Reds believe in his upside-and think the ballpark boost will help him rediscover his swing-it could be worth it. He’s a Midwest guy, having played college ball at Michigan, and a move to Cincinnati might suit him on and off the field.
On the flip side, the Padres have pieces they could move to make this deal happen. Whether it’s Estrada, Peralta, Matsui, or even Adrian Morejon, there are bullpen arms that would immediately improve Cincinnati’s relief corps.
Morejon, in particular, might be a tougher sell for San Diego to part with-but if the right starter is on the table, A.J. Preller has never been shy about pulling the trigger.
If the Reds are willing to shop someone like Lodolo or Abbott, the Padres need to be in that conversation. They’re not the only team that would be interested, but they might be one of the better fits.
This is a trade framework that works-if both sides can agree on what the pieces are worth. Keep an eye on this one. There’s real potential here.