The Padres’ rotation is one of the messier puzzles on their offseason board, and the answers are far from locked in. AJ Cassavell of MLB.com tried to cut through the fog by sorting the possible arms into buckets, and that framework paints a pretty clear picture of just how unsettled this staff remains.
Randy Vasquez belongs in the “holdover” category, even if he was left off the playoff roster. That omission could make him easy to overlook, but he’s still a name that matters for next season.
Vasquez made a noticeable leap in the first half of this year and finished with a 3.87 ERA across 60 appearances in 2024 and 2025, per Cassavell. He’s even pencilled in by Cassavell for the No. 4 spot in 2027, which tells you how he’s being viewed in this mix.
The injury-recovery group is where things get especially murky. Nick Pivetta stands out as the best bet of the trio, thanks to the 2.05 ERA he posted after returning on Sept.
- The medical side will ultimately drive the decision, but if he’s healthy, the remaining two years and $32 million on his deal look like money the Padres would gladly keep on the books.
Joe Musgrove is a tougher read. He did make it back to the mound, but he wasn’t able to rebuild enough to consistently take the ball, which leaves him in a much less secure place than Pivetta. He’s still worth a look because of what he’s meant to the franchise, but there’s no real way to pencil him into a dependable role right now.
Then there’s Yu Darvish, who is the biggest wild card in the whole discussion. He had been widely expected to retire after right elbow surgery, but he has not shut the door on returning. That alone is enough to place him on this list.
Michael King sits in a different lane altogether as the free agent returnee. He can opt out of the deal that would pay him $58 million over the next two years, though he’d receive a buyout if he does.
He has said he wants to come back, and the new ownership group should be willing to make that happen, even if it means going beyond the current contract. King was the de facto ace on a shaky staff, and the Padres can’t really afford to lose him.
Beyond that core, the picture gets even more open. The Padres have a questionable group that could include Kyle Walker, Griffin Canning and Lucas Giolito, but Walker is the one worth bringing back if the club is willing to give him the kind of raise he’d find on the market. Everyone else in that tier is replaceable if San Diego decides to take a different direction.
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The timing, though, makes this a far more demanding handoff than a standard changeover. San Diego has just come out of the 2026 postseason and now heads into an offseason loaded with roster uncertainty, from looming free-agent decisions to the question of how Joe Musgrove fits as he comes back from injury. For owners who arrive with pressure already baked in, the first winter is rarely about patience, and this one could set the tone for everything that follows. [Read more 🡒]