The Padres may have a real trade chip in Mason Miller, but there’s a catch that could make any deal a whole lot messier: Xander Bogaerts.
San Diego is under .500 with only a few weeks left before the MLB trade deadline, and August 3 is the day things could really start moving. If the Padres keep trending this way, they could wind up selling off pieces this summer. Miller has emerged as a player who could actually be dealt, and the Padres would like to use that kind of move to unload another contract at the same time.
The problem is Bogaerts.
As ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel noted, the Padres have run into a wall with the $280 million star because his contract is so heavy that including him in a trade with Miller would barely help a team interested in the deal.
"They would love to attach Xander Bogaerts' onerous contract to any trade, but that would severely limit their return and, frankly, nobody's going to take it," Passan and McDaniel write.
That’s the heart of the issue. San Diego would love to package Bogaerts with Miller, but the 11-year, $280 million deal runs through the 2033 season and keeps Bogaerts on the books through his age-40 season. Any team taking him on would be absorbing a contract that far outpaces his current production.
And that production has slipped hard. In 95 games this season, Bogaerts has 1.1 bWAR, a .220 batting average, a 79 OPS+ and a .638 OPS. He’s nowhere near the player his Boston Red Sox years suggested, and even his first season with the Padres in 2023 was better than what he’s giving them now.
So while Miller could still draw real interest, Bogaerts is the roadblock. If San Diego tries to pair them in one move, it would have to settle for far less than Miller would command on his own. The Padres may want to clear the contract, but Bogaerts’ trade value is effectively underwater, and that leaves them in a tough spot with no easy fix in sight.
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