The Padres knew Mason Miller was going to come with a massive prospect bill. What’s starting to take shape now is the other side of that deal: the money.
MLB Trade Rumors’ Matt Swartz projects Miller to make $8.1 million in arbitration in 2027, a jump that would more than double the $4 million he’s earning this season. For San Diego, that’s the price of landing an elite closer with the kind of late-inning dominance that changes a game in a blink.
That figure also fits the path Miller is on. He qualified for arbitration early as a Super Two player, which gives him four trips through the process instead of the usual three.
He’s under club control through 2029, but “club control” does not mean cheap control. The salary climb is just getting started.
The Padres acquired Miller and JP Sears from the Athletics at the 2025 trade deadline in a deal built around four prospects. Leo De Vries, then the No. 3 overall prospect in baseball, headlined the package, with Braden Nett, Henry Baez and Eduarniel Núñez also heading to Oakland.
Miller was the centerpiece, Sears provided rotation depth, and A.J. Preller paid up in a big way.
Now the trade is being measured on two tracks: what Miller does in October, and how expensive he becomes along the way.
An $8.1 million salary is still a bargain for a closer of his caliber, but the number matters because of where the Padres are already sitting. Their roster carries major long-term commitments to Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth. Every arbitration raise tightens the space for a starter, another bat or the depth the club often has to patch together.
Miller’s next raises won’t stop at 2027, either. Another full season of saves, strikeouts and high-leverage innings would push the number higher in 2028, and then the Padres would be back at it again in 2029.
A long-term extension would bring cost certainty, but it would also require another major financial commitment from ownership. Sticking with the yearly arbitration route keeps flexibility, though it also keeps nudging the price upward. Trading him would reopen the prospect-cost debate and would only make sense if the return fixed multiple big-league needs at once.
For now, paying him is the obvious answer.
Miller is the biggest number in San Diego’s eight-player arbitration class, which is projected to total $24.6 million. That’s the group’s projected salary figure, not $24.6 million in fresh spending. The rest of the projected class is also on the books, but the overall effect is the same: another sizable chunk of payroll is already taking shape before the Padres even get to their free agents and outside additions.
In Other News...
Padres Have Every Right To Be Furious About This Game 1 Twist
A strange break in Game 1 of the NLDS put the Padres in an early hole before the baseball really had a chance to breathe. Ty France sent a ball skyward at American Family Field, it struck a cable supporting the roof, and Jackson Chourio came down with it for an out. It was the kind of play that makes everyone in the ballpark stop and check the rule book, even if the answer winds up being more mundane than the reaction.
Under the parks ground rules, the ball stays live if it hits the cable above fair territory, so the ruling was correct. Still, the setting only added to the frustration for San Diego, with MLB controlling whether the roof is opened or closed in the postseason and the roof closed for this game. For a team trying to seize an early edge in October, it was the sort of twist that leaves plenty of room for argument, even if not much room for protest. [Read more 🡒]
Padres Open NLDS With Brutal Ending Fans Wont Stop Debating
The Padres NLDS opener in Milwaukee came down to one of those October moments that can linger long after the final pitch. San Diego dropped Game 1, 3-2, but the conversation afterward centered on Ty Frances drive in the top of the ninth, a ball that looked for a moment like it might flip the game and the series with one swing.
Instead, it hit the closed roof at American Family Field and was caught by Brewers left fielder Jackson Chourio for an out, a ruling the Padres challenged before it was upheld under the stadiums ground rules. Milwaukee then finished off the final out, leaving San Diego to regroup and leaving fans to keep arguing about a play that felt one step away from changing everything. [Read more 🡒]
Brewers Got A Massive Playoff Break Thanks To One Bizarre Bounce
A strange break in Milwaukee helped turn one of Game 1s biggest swings into a routine out, and the Padres were left to shake their heads. Ty France sent a deep fly toward the roof at American Family Field, where the ball took an odd bounce and was ultimately caught by Jackson Chourio, erasing what looked like a possible go-ahead homer for San Diego.
Craig Stammen challenged the call, but the umpires let it stand under the parks ground rule, which treated the ball as fair after it hit the roof. It was the kind of play that can feel unique to one stadium, one postseason game, and one unlucky sequence, especially since the balls path probably would have played differently in most major league parks. [Read more 🡒]