As the MLB offseason winds down and Spring Training looms on the horizon, the San Diego Padres find themselves staring down a pivotal question: can Joe Musgrove return to form and anchor a rotation that’s suddenly full of question marks?
Musgrove is more than just a fan favorite in San Diego-he’s a foundational piece of the Padres’ pitching staff. But after missing the entire 2025 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, the right-hander enters camp with more uncertainty than ever. And yet, the team’s October hopes may very well hinge on his ability to bounce back.
Musgrove’s Road Back
Let’s rewind for a second. Musgrove’s 2024 season was already shortened by arm issues, culminating in a 6-5 record with a 3.88 ERA over 19 starts. He was shut down during the Wild Card round against the Braves after just 3.2 innings due to elbow discomfort-an ominous sign that ultimately led to surgery and a lost 2025 campaign.
Now, he’s working his way back. And while Spring Training is typically about shaking off rust and dialing in mechanics, for Musgrove, it’s about proving he’s healthy enough to take the ball every fifth day again.
The numbers don’t lie: across his career, Musgrove has posted a 3.73 ERA with a solid 23.9% strikeout rate and just a 6.0% walk rate over 180 starts. That kind of consistency is hard to come by, especially for a guy who leans on a deep six-pitch mix. His sinker, which averages north of 90 mph, sets up a sharp 93 mph four-seamer that’s been key to his success.
Manager Craig Stammen has made it clear-there’s no preset innings limit for Musgrove. But make no mistake, the leash will be short early on.
Stammen and the staff plan to monitor how he feels after each outing and adjust accordingly. It’s all about the long game here.
Depth, But With Asterisks
The Padres aren’t just banking on Musgrove-they’re banking on a rotation that’s full of talent but also full of question marks. That’s a risky combination.
Michael King, Nick Pivetta, Randy Vasquez, JP Sears, Triston McKenzie, and Marco Gonzales are all expected to log starts this season. On paper, that’s a group with potential. But dig a little deeper, and you’ll find plenty of red flags.
King, for example, was limited to just 15 starts last season due to injury. The Padres will be watching him closely when pitchers and catchers report. There’s optimism he can return to form in 2026, but that’s far from a guarantee.
Then there’s Gonzales. The veteran lefty is trying to bounce back from surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his throwing arm-his third surgery on that same arm. He’s only made 17 starts over the last two seasons, and while he’s a savvy presence when healthy, the Padres will have to tread carefully with his workload all summer long.
Eyes on Cactus League
As for Musgrove, it’s still up in the air whether he’ll be ready for Opening Day. His performance in Cactus League games will go a long way toward determining that.
The Padres won’t rush him just to have him on the mound for the first series at Petco Park. The priority is getting him fully built up and keeping him healthy for the long haul.
Sure, it might sting a little if he’s not on the bump when the season opens. But if the Padres want to be playing meaningful baseball in October, they’ll need Musgrove at full strength-not just for the first month, but for all six.
This is a team that’s built to contend, but only if its arms can stay upright. And that starts with Joe Musgrove.