Jazz Chisholm Jr. would bring the Padres a tempting mix of power, speed and defensive value, but Jim Bowden’s projected contract comes with a built-in problem that San Diego would have to live with from the start.
Bowden’s idea for The Athletic is a six-year, $128 million deal with an opt-out after Year 2, and he lists the Padres among Chisholm’s best fits. On paper, it makes sense as a baseball match. In practice, the structure hands Chisholm a lot of control and leaves the Padres exposed if the bat doesn’t come around.
That’s the real issue here: the first two seasons would be the proving ground, and after that, Chisholm could decide he’s worth more and walk away. If he doesn’t improve, the Padres could be stuck with four more years on the deal. Either way, San Diego is taking on risk.
There is an obvious appeal to the player Bowden is describing. Chisholm offers left-handed power and speed, two tools that can change a game in a hurry. He would also give the Padres a boost at second base, which is part of why the fit looks so natural.
Bowden’s 2026 review underscores that upside. Chisholm hit 19 home runs and stole 41 bases, while finishing in the 96th percentile in baserunning value and the 85th percentile in defensive run value. He can impact a game in more ways than just with the bat.
But that’s where the tension starts. Chisholm also finished with a .231 average and ranked in the 23rd percentile in batting run value.
That’s the number that makes a $128 million commitment hard to swallow. The average by itself doesn’t tell the whole story, but the offensive profile still leaves the Padres with a major question to answer.
Before they’d go that far, San Diego would need a real explanation for how Chisholm is going to produce more at the plate. The contract would also force the Padres to settle second base around him and make other infield decisions accordingly, which matters even more with all of their offseason needs.
The opt-out is what makes the deal feel so uneven. If Chisholm puts together two strong seasons, helps the Padres in October and then leaves for a bigger payday, that’s one outcome. If the offense stays flat, though, the Padres are the ones left carrying the rest of the commitment.
In Other News...
Padres Face Tough 40-Man Calls On Prospects They Cant Risk Losing
With the Rule 5 draft still tied up by the unresolved Collective Bargaining Agreement and the end of the lockout, the Padres are in a holding pattern on one of the trickiest parts of their offseason. They cannot make their own Rule 5 selections until the process resumes, but they still have to decide which prospects are worth protecting on the 40-man roster before another club can get a crack at them.
That puts a spotlight on a handful of young players who have put themselves into the conversation, including Tucker Musgrove, Gutierrez, Jagger Haynes, Braedon Karpathios and Jake Cunningham. San Diego has to balance present roster pressure against future upside, and these are the kinds of calls that can shape a farm system for years, even if the final move does not come until the calendar and the labor situation finally catch up. [Read more 🡒]
Padres Farm System Debate Just Got Harder To Ignore
The Padres farm system conversation has taken on a sharper edge after El Pasos uneven season, one that exposed how thin the margin can be between encouraging development and organizational concern. The Chihuahuas finished 60-90 and stumbled badly in the second half, even as the offense managed to settle into the middle of the league in several categories and give the system at least a few signs of life.
Pitching was the bigger problem, with the staff posting a rough ERA and run differential that made it hard to find much comfort in the results. Still, there were individual bright spots worth noting, especially catcher Ethan Salas, who showed strong work on both sides of the ball before reaching San Diego, and Braedon Karpathios, whose late-season promotion offered another glimpse of a prospect with some upside. [Read more 🡒]
Padres Face A Tough Walker Buehler Call This Offseason
Walker Buehler gave the Padres exactly the kind of season that complicates an offseason. He took the ball 32 times and logged 153 2/3 innings, a workload that mattered as much as the improved ERA and WHIP he posted compared with earlier seasons. For a rotation that has been searching for stability, that kind of bounce-back makes him a real asset, and it also makes him more expensive at the negotiating table.
The problem for San Diego is that value cuts both ways. Buehlers strong year has raised his market, and the Padres are still weighing whether they want to commit to a multiyear deal or keep looking for starters who can consistently work deeper into games. Before they sit down to talk contract, the club would be wise to set a firm price and have other rotation plans in place, because this is the kind of decision that can shape the whole offseason. [Read more 🡒]