Seven straight wins have turned the Padres’ September into something bigger than survival.
A week ago, the conversation was all about keeping Arizona behind them and hanging on to the final NL Wild Card spot. That part still matters, but the picture has shifted. San Diego is now 81-68 with 13 games left, Arizona is 2.5 games back, and the Padres’ playoff magic number is down to 11.
What makes the stretch run more interesting is what sits above them. The Cubs and Phillies are both 83-67, which leaves the Padres just 1.5 games out of the top two Wild Card spots.
For most of this month, San Diego was focused on protecting the last seat. Now there’s a real chance to move up and grab the best one.
That matters because the top Wild Card team hosts every game of the best-of-three opening round. For the Padres, that would mean October at Petco Park, where they are 46-29, instead of on the road, where they are 35-39. Home has been a much better fit, and three games in San Diego would look a lot better than heading to Chicago, Philadelphia or Atlanta.
There’s a catch, though. The Padres lose the head-to-head tiebreaker against both the Cubs and Phillies, so matching either team’s record won’t be enough. They have to pass them outright.
The Diamondbacks still hang around in the background, too. San Diego has not locked up the season-series tiebreaker against Arizona, and the teams have split their first 10 meetings. Their final three games at Petco Park will settle the season series and could also decide the last playoff spot if it comes to that.
That makes every game matter even more. A one-game lead going into the final weekend would not offer much breathing room.
If Arizona won two of three, the teams would finish even over the season series and the Diamondbacks would own the head-to-head edge. The Padres need enough separation that those final games become more about setting up pitching than fighting for survival.
The schedule gives them a path. San Diego has four games at Colorado, three at home against Miami, three at Dodger Stadium and then those final three against Arizona.
Colorado is 55-94, but Coors Field can still throw a wrench into things, and the Padres’ losing road record leaves no margin for error there.
A magic number of 11 with 13 games remaining means there’s still work to do, and none of the important tiebreakers are in the bank. But seven wins in a row have changed the standard.
Making the playoffs would have been enough last week. Now the Padres have a chance to do more than just get in.
They can try to improve their position and force the postseason back to Petco Park.
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Padres Loss Revived A Frustrating Question Fans Know Too Well
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Craig Stammen acknowledged the defeat while still pointing to the teams recent play as a sign of progress, which is why this one stung without necessarily changing the larger mood around the club. Even so, the kind of collapse that followed a promising start is the sort of night that sends Padres fans right back to a familiar question, the same one that tends to linger whenever a lead slips away in a hurry. [Read more 🡒]