The Padres are starting to draw the kind of attention that matters in October conversations, even if they still have work to do before getting there.
ESPN’s Jesse Rogers recently surveyed MLB executives and scouts on several postseason questions, including which National League club could emerge as the biggest sleeper. The response around San Diego was strong, and the reasoning kept circling back to the same place: the pitching.
“Not unlike the theory behind why our panel of voters chose the Brewers as the team to beat, the Padres' pitching staff seems like it could be the reason they make a run,” Rogers wrote.
He added, “Of course, they have to make the postseason first, but that's the whole point of picking them as a sleeper: No one knows for sure that they'll get in, but watch out if they do. Since the trade deadline, when San Diego picked up Casey Mize and Robbie Ray, the pitching staff has compiled the best ERA in the NL.
And, of course, the Padres have an elite bullpen led by Mason Miller. It's enough to create a consensus for our NL sleeper team.”
That view showed up again in the comments Rogers collected from around the league. One American League scout called San Diego “the perfect sleeper team,” pointing to how much better the club looks now than it did earlier in the season.
“For me, San Diego is the perfect sleeper team,” he said. "They're better now than they have been all season, but because they've been fighting for a playoff spot and have no chance at the division, it doesn't feel like people are talking about them.
Their last-second grab of Mize and Ray might be [general manager AJ Preller's best work if they go far. And it just seems like everyone who was slumping in the first half is hot now."
A National League executive singled out the bullpen and Jackson Merrill when explaining why he landed on the Padres.
"Jackson Merrill is going good. So is that bullpen. They're my sleeper pick."
San Diego has also backed up the buzz on the field. The Padres had won eight straight before Tuesday’s loss and now sit 2.5 games ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final National League wild-card spot.
The offense has been doing its part, with Merrill, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado leading the way. The bullpen has been every bit as important, with Mason Miller setting the tone and Adrian Morejon helping give San Diego a real late-game edge.
Put it all together, and the case is easy to see: the Padres are producing at the plate, getting huge innings from the back end of games and getting stronger in the rotation after the trade deadline. If they keep playing this way, they may be peaking at exactly the right moment.
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