Robbie Ray’s first three starts in a Padres uniform have not exactly quieted the concern around the trade that brought him to San Diego.
The veteran left-hander has opened with a 4.20 ERA and 6.56 FIP, and the underlying numbers have been even rougher than the surface stats. His first three outings have produced a -0.2 fWAR, though that line would look a little uglier if Fernando Tatis Jr. hadn’t saved him with an epic grand slam robbery against the Mets last time out.
That was always part of the gamble with Ray. He’s no longer the same power arm who once overpowered hitters, and now he’s more of a pitch-to-contact specialist who tends to work best in pitcher-friendly parks that help him induce fly balls.
With some luck and some patience, there’s still a path for him to settle into the top of the Padres’ rotation. Even so, the strikeout and walk rates need to move in the right direction, since he’s sitting at 15.2% and 16.7% in those categories.
The more worrying part of the deal may be who San Diego gave up.
Miguel Mendez was already a frustrating loss because of how much promise he had shown just a year ago. The Padres liked him enough in 2025 to add him to the 40-man roster and protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, even though he had thrown barely 20 innings at Double-A at that point.
His stock has taken a hit this season after a shoulder injury slowed everything down. A year ago, some fans were hoping for an MLB debut in 2026, but Mendez has barely been on the mound and has posted a 4.93 ERA across 11 starts in Double-A. He was recently activated from the injured list, and his 3.20 FIP suggests there may still be a brighter future ahead in San Francisco.
Still, Mendez might not be the piece that defines this trade.
Joniel Hernandez could be the one who turns it into a disaster for A.J. Preller.
The Padres took some heat for dealing a player they had just signed to a $1.4 million bonus, but it’s hard to get too worked up about a 17-year-old lottery ticket at the deadline. In hindsight, maybe it should have been.
Hernandez has wasted no time making noise in the Giants’ system. He has homered in back-to-back games in the DSL, and he’s up to three homers since joining the organization.
In 10 games with San Francisco in the Dominican Summer League, he’s hitting .343/.439/.629 with a 152 wRC+ and has kept producing consistent PullAir contact. Put together with his time on the Padres’ DSL club, he’s at .321/.439/.539 with a 132 wRC+ in his pro debut, along with four stolen bases.
If Ray finds the form he showed in San Francisco and helps push the Padres deep into October, none of this may matter. But on the early evidence, this is a trade that is not looking great for Preller and the Padres.
In Other News...
Manny Machados Familiar Slump Is Becoming A Padres September Problem
Manny Machados August has looked a lot like a player searching for the right gear at the wrong time. The Padres third baseman has gone through long stretches of quiet at the plate, with his production leaning heavily toward singles and far less of the extra-base damage San Diego usually counts on from him. On some nights he has looked locked in, but the overall pattern has been inconsistency at a moment when the lineup can least afford it.
San Diego enters September with a narrow grip on the NL Wild Card race, and Machados bat sits right at the center of that tension. The Padres do not need him to carry the entire offense, but they do need more than brief flashes if they want to protect their position down the stretch. A familiar slump has a way of feeling bigger in the final month, and for a team trying to stay ahead in a crowded race, every quiet series from one of its biggest hitters tightens the pressure. [Read more 🡒]
Padres Still Face A Real Sung-Mun Song Question
Sung-Mun Song has given the Padres a little bit of everything since arriving, just not much at the plate. In 62 games, he has shown the kind of plate discipline and defensive versatility that keeps a player in the mix, while also flashing above-average fielding and baserunning that make him useful in more than one spot. For a team that has spent plenty of time patching together its roster, that sort of flexibility still carries value.
The larger question is whether there is enough offensive growth left for Song to become more than a limited role player in San Diego. His power and contact quality have lagged, even after injuries and time in the minors complicated his path, but his track record in the KBO offers at least a reason to think there may be another gear somewhere in there. The Padres do not need him to be a star, but they do need to know whether the upside is real or whether his current profile is close to the final product. [Read more 🡒]
Padres Pulled Off A Gritty Comeback After An Early Scare
The Padres had to work through an awkward early turn Tuesday, falling behind 5-1 before settling in and putting together a 7-5 comeback against the Twins. San Diegos offense did enough to erase the deficit, while the pitching side was forced to adjust after an early exit in the opposing dugout changed the shape of the game.
Minnesota starter Casey Mize was hurt when he slipped on the dugout steps and sprained his ankle, though imaging came back negative and he is day-to-day. From there, the Padres took advantage of the opening, with Griffin Canning handling the middle innings to steady things before Mason Miller finished the job for his 32nd save, another reminder that San Diego can survive a rough start when the game stays within reach. [Read more 🡒]