The Padres’ rotation has been a mess, and Nick Pivetta’s injury may end up shaping more than just the rest of this season.
San Diego is sitting at 46-46 because the starting staff has not held up its end of the bargain. Michael King has done what he can to keep things from unraveling, but the rest of the rotation has either landed on the injured list or posted an ERA above 4.70. That’s a brutal combination, and it has left the Padres with slim playoff odds heading into the All-Star break.
Three of the five projected Opening Day starters - Randy Vásquez, Joe Musgrove and Pivetta - are already on the IL. Vásquez is the newest name in that group after an ankle contusion, and he had logged 84 innings with a 4.71 ERA before going down. Musgrove is still rehabbing from an elbow injury that has dragged on without an end in sight.
Pivetta is the one who could create the biggest ripple. He was the breakout ace of the 2025 team, but his season lasted only four starts before a strained flexor tendon shut him down. That forearm injury can sometimes be a warning sign for elbow trouble, which only adds another layer to the concern around his return.
The bigger wrinkle is in his contract. Pivetta has two years left after 2026, with $32 million in salary remaining across those seasons, and he has player options built in between years. But there’s also a clause that changes everything if he qualifies as a long-term injury case: those player options would become team options.
The key number appears to be 130 days. Pivetta went on the IL on April 12, which means he would need to be back by about August 22 to avoid crossing that line. Barring a setback, that date is now the target.
There is at least some progress. Pivetta began throwing bullpens earlier this week, which gives him roughly six weeks to get back before that late-August cutoff. Still, any hiccup in the rehab process would put him in real danger of missing the deadline.
That leaves the Padres in a tricky spot. If Pivetta pushes to return too quickly and gets hurt again, he could end up opting into his deal and adding to the payroll burden. But San Diego also needs him badly enough that even a less-than-100-percent Pivetta would be a major upgrade over what Craig Stammen has been asked to cover.
With the trade deadline coming in early August, this is one of the more interesting situations to watch in San Diego.
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