Jackson Merrill is setting the stage for a breakout season, focusing on making more contact, reducing strikeouts, and hitting with increased power. Despite maintaining his weight, Merrill's revamped diet and workout routine aim to boost his strength without sacrificing speed on the field or base paths.
His goal? More stolen bases without slowing down.
In ESPN's latest top 100 MLB players list, Merrill ranks second among the San Diego Padres, just behind Fernando Tatis Jr. at No. 14, landing at No. 43 himself. This recognition comes despite a challenging 2025 season, marred by injuries that led to what many considered a "sophomore slump." Analysts, including ESPN's David Schoenfield, suggest that reducing his chase rate could be Merrill's ticket to superstardom.
Back in 2024, Merrill narrowly missed out on the Rookie of the Year award, finishing second to Pittsburgh Pirates' pitching sensation Paul Skenes. Merrill was the standout position player, marking the best rookie season in Padres history.
The promise of 2025 was high, but injuries derailed his progress. A hamstring issue in April, a concussion in June, and an ankle sprain in August kept him off the field for significant stretches. Yet, when healthy, Merrill showcased his potential, hitting .275/.320/.626 with seven homers and 16 RBIs in September.
Despite the setbacks, Merrill posted a 112 OPS+ and a 3.0 fWAR for the year, with 16 home runs and 67 RBIs. Looking ahead to 2026, FanGraphs projects a 25-homer, 75-RBI season.
His chase rate, a concern, was at 35.9%, placing him in the lower 10% of MLB players. However, there's optimism that with health on his side, Merrill could hit 30 home runs.
Spring training has shown a more disciplined Padres lineup, and Merrill is no exception. While he ranks high in barrel percentage, his bat speed and hard-hit percentage remain average. Improving his on-base percentage (OBP) is crucial as the regular season approaches.
Merrill's spring numbers, though limited to 30 at-bats, include two home runs, four RBIs, and a .600 slugging percentage. However, his 25% strikeout rate highlights an area for growth. As he turns 23, Merrill is still a few years away from his prime, typically between ages 26-29.
With the potential to become an MLB superstar, Merrill's journey is just beginning. Ranked No. 4 at his position by MLB, 2026 could be a pivotal year in his ascent. If he stays healthy, expect Merrill to regain his rookie season momentum and climb the ranks among the game's elite.