Monday’s 10-game MLB slate brings plenty of playoff pressure, and it also sets up a few home run props worth circling.
The Cubs and Padres both enter the day in strong spots in the NL wild-card race, and both clubs are leaning on star outfielders who have been mashing lately. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Fernando Tatis Jr. have each caught fire at the right time, and that makes them appealing targets to go deep on a lighter betting board.
Crow-Armstrong has been on a ridiculous tear for Chicago. The Cubs’ MVP candidate leads MLB with an 8.1 WAR, and his power numbers have exploded over the last week and month.
He has five home runs in his last six games and 10 over his last 28 days, while his OPS in the last week sits north of 1.500. For the season, he’s up to a .938 OPS.
Monday’s matchup adds even more fuel. Crow-Armstrong will face Merrill Kelly, a veteran right-hander who has allowed 26 home runs in 23 appearances while carrying a 5.37 ERA.
Kelly has also had trouble with Crow-Armstrong in their previous meetings, with the Cubs star going 2-for-5 and hitting a pair of doubles. Crow-Armstrong has done most of his damage this year against right-handed pitching, with 24 of his 33 homers coming against righties.
At +340, he offers solid value for a Cubs team trying to secure the top NL wild-card spot.
Ryan Jeffers is another name to watch. The Twins catcher has dealt with injuries and has appeared in only 67 games, with 60 starts, in the 2026 season, but he has still been one of the better offensive catchers when healthy.
Jeffers is batting .282 with 10 home runs and a .875 OPS. He hasn’t gone deep in his last 10 games, but the setup on Monday is inviting.
Minnesota faces the Athletics and left-hander Jeffrey Springs, who has given up 29 home runs in 23 appearances and owns a 6.02 ERA. Springs has allowed at least one homer in all but one outing since June 1.
Jeffers is just 2-for-8 against him in his career, but he has handled lefties well this season, hitting .308 with two homers and a .923 OPS against southpaws. He’s also batting over .300 overall in his last 10 games, and that makes him a live option against an Athletics pitching staff that has struggled badly.
Fernando Tatis Jr. rounds out the best-looking power play of the night. The Padres outfielder followed a two-homer game on Sunday with a price that still sits near 5/1 to homer Monday, which feels too high given the way he’s swinging it. Over his last 24 games, Tatis is hitting .352 with nine homers, and over the last week he’s been even hotter at .480 with four home runs.
His season started slowly on the power front, but he’s now up to 17 homers with an OPS above .800 for a Padres team that is in position to make the playoffs in the National League. On Monday, San Diego opens a series against the Pirates and Braxton Ashcraft, who has allowed 21 homers this season. Ashcraft has a 3.68 ERA, but he’s surrendered at least one home run in all but one of his starts since July 1.
That makes Tatis a strong candidate to keep the surge going in the series opener.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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