The division series brings four heavyweight matchups, and each one has a different kind of edge to it. Some of these series look tight enough to go the full distance. Others could turn on one starter getting hit hard, or one superstar waking up at the right time.
Start in the American League, where the Yankees and Rays meet in a series that feels bigger than a division round. New York got through the Red Sox in a two-game sweep in the wild-card series, while Tampa arrives as the AL East champ.
The two clubs were the only ones in the league to top 90 wins, and they played each other 13 times in the regular season. The Rays took seven of those games, even though the Yankees outscored them 54-45 overall.
That gap in the run total says plenty about how even this matchup is. Both teams bring high-end starting pitching and bullpens that can shorten games in a hurry.
The Yankees scored 739 runs in the regular season, just ahead of Tampa Bay’s 736, but they go about it differently. The Rays lean on contact and small ball.
The Yankees usually let the power do the talking, though Wednesday showed they can scrape together runs in other ways too. This one looks like a grind, and the prediction here is that it goes deep, with late swings and extra innings shaping the outcome.
The White Sox-Guardians series offers a sharper contrast in style. Chicago comes in with shaky starting pitching and more power than contact at the plate.
Cleveland brings a stronger rotation and a lineup built more around putting the ball in play than driving it over the fence. The White Sox finished 7-6 against the Guardians in their 13 regular-season meetings, so there wasn’t much separating them there either.
Game 1 puts Parker Messick in the spotlight. He faced Chicago four times during the regular season and went 2-1 in those starts, posting a 2.81 ERA with 29 strikeouts and five walks in 25 2/3 innings.
He’s already familiar with this lineup, and the expectation is that he uses that knowledge to turn in a clean start and work at least seven innings. In two of his four outings against the White Sox, he lasted seven innings or more, and only once did he go fewer than six.
The call here is a strong opening performance that gives Cleveland an early series edge.
Out in the National League, the Padres and Brewers bring a different kind of October test. San Diego won four of six meetings with Milwaukee during the regular season, even though the Brewers finished with MLB’s best record at 103-59. Milwaukee’s pitching is a strength, but its rotation is also inexperienced in postseason settings, and that could matter against a Padres lineup that has already shown it can handle October pressure.
Jurrangelo Misiorowski’s lone start against the Padres came in May, when Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr. were both in rough stretches. He threw seven scoreless innings that day, but this matchup looks tougher now.
San Diego tied for the second-most runs in the second half, and the club that matched it was Milwaukee. The Padres also put together a huge September, finishing with a league-best .815 OPS and 232 hits.
The prediction is that Misiorowski runs into trouble early and doesn’t make it through the fifth inning in his first postseason start.
Then there’s Dodgers-Braves, the series that brings the biggest star power. Atlanta took five of six from Los Angeles during the regular season, which is a real feather in its cap, but the Dodgers are coming into October at full strength. That changes the feel of the matchup.
Shohei Ohtani is the name to watch. His second half was quiet as he dealt with lingering knee and biceps injuries, and after returning from the IL on Sept. 23, he wasn’t especially productive at the plate.
He played only eight games in September, but the postseason gives him a fresh stage. The prediction is a big start for Ohtani in the NLDS, with three home runs in the series, including two in one game.
He already has 11 career postseason homers in 33 games, with eight coming during last year’s World Series run, and the expectation is that he adds to that total quickly against Atlanta.
In Other News...
Padres Owner Just Added Heat To A Rivalry Fans Already Feel
Before the Padres took the field for their wild-card Game 2 against the Cubs, owner Jose E. Feliciano managed to add a little fuel to an already combustible rivalry. In a media session, he took a playful shot at Dodgers owner Mark Walter, joking that Walter "owns a lot of dinosaurs," a nod to the fossil collection displayed in Walters office. The remark spread quickly on social media, the kind of offhand jab that tends to travel fast when San Diego and Los Angeles are involved.
Craig Stammen was asked about the bigger-picture possibility of a playoff meeting with the Dodgers, but he kept the focus where it needed to be. The Padres manager steered the conversation back to the next series and the Milwaukee Brewers, which remains the immediate task in front of the club. Even so, the moment was another reminder that when these two organizations are anywhere near the same October conversation, the edge never stays quiet for long. [Read more 🡒]
Brewers Enter Padres Series With One Flaw Fans Can't Ignore
The Brewers arrive at the National League Division Series with plenty going for them, from a strong regular season to home-field advantage and a rotation headlined by Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson. On paper, that makes Milwaukee the favorite, but postseason baseball has a way of putting even the best-looking advantages under a microscope once the games begin.
For the Padres, the matchup offers a clear opening. San Diegos lineup brings more power, and its pitching gives it the kind of balance that can stress a team built more on run prevention than long-ball damage. If Milwaukees offense cant produce enough thump, especially in the kind of tight October games that define a short series, this could turn into the kind of flaw that decides everything. [Read more 🡒]
Padres Fans Have Heard This Kind Of Manager Backing Before
The Padres have changed managers plenty of times in the last seven seasons, but the common denominator has stayed the same: A.J. Preller. Through four different skippers, San Diego has still managed five postseason trips in that span, and now Craig Stammen is the latest to get the kind of public backing that has accompanied this job before.
Stammen is hardly a stranger to the organization, having spent most of the past decade in different roles around the club, and Prellers support has centered on the traits that matter most in a dugout and clubhouse. Accountability and leadership are the qualities he singled out, the kind of language that suggests the front office sees something sturdier here than the usual short-term vote of confidence. The question, as always in San Diego, is whether this one lasts longer than the others. [Read more 🡒]