September has arrived, and the National League Wild Card picture still has enough wobble in it to make a clean forecast feel dangerous. Philadelphia and Chicago sit in comfortable spots, while San Diego and Arizona are practically locked in a tug-of-war. But the current three-team field, as it stands right now, is not the one I expect to survive the month.
The biggest swing in this race, in my view, comes from Philadelphia. The Phillies hold WC1 now, but I’m not buying them staying there.
They’ve been scorching lately and have been closing the gap on the Atlanta Braves. My prediction is that Philadelphia keeps rolling, catches Atlanta, and takes the division.
If that happens, the Braves slide into the Wild Card mix instead.
That would put Atlanta into WC1.
Chicago, meanwhile, looks straightforward. The Cubs are five games ahead of the cutoff, and there’s no need to get fancy with that one. They’re in.
So the real drama sits with San Diego and Arizona, who have been trading places for the last playoff spot while Miami, St. Louis, and Pittsburgh keep chasing from behind. I’m leaning Arizona to grab that final chair.
The Diamondbacks have issues, no question. Corbin Carroll has dealt with back trouble, and the pitching health isn’t exactly reassuring.
The Ketel Marte situation has also been strange. Still, Marte’s return gives Arizona back one of its key offensive pieces at exactly the right time, and that matters to the team.
As for San Diego, I don’t see the Padres taking this thing and sprinting away from everyone. That’s what opens the door for Arizona.
So if you’re writing it down today, here’s the forecast:
WC1 - Atlanta Braves
WC2 - Chicago Cubs
WC3 - Arizona Diamondbacks
That would mean Philadelphia wins the East, Arizona overtakes San Diego, and the Padres end up as the painful September miss. Miami stays in the conversation longer than expected, and St.
Louis keeps the standings uneasy. But when the month is done, the field I expect is Atlanta, Chicago and Arizona.
In Other News...
Padres Finally Have A Nick Pivetta Sign They Desperately Needed
Nick Pivettas rehab is trending the right way, and for a Padres rotation that has spent plenty of time in a holding pattern, that matters. President of baseball operations AJ Preller said Pivetta is feeling good after his recent work on the mound and will be at Petco Park this weekend, with a chance to move onto the active roster soon. His latest outing, 4 1/3 scoreless innings in Triple-A, was another step forward after earlier rehab setbacks had slowed the process.
The timing is especially useful because San Diego is still waiting on Joe Musgrove, who remains in his recovery and has not reached the same point yet. For the Padres, Pivetta getting close gives them another potential arm to lean on while they keep sorting through the health of a staff that could use a few fewer unknowns. Even before any final roster move is made, the encouraging signs around Pivetta are the kind of development this team has been needing. [Read more 🡒]
Padres Get A Fresh Test Of Their Adrian Morejn Deadline Call
The deadline passed with the Padres deciding to keep Adrian Morejn in place rather than move him for Yankees right-hander A.J. Warren, a choice that immediately became a small but telling snapshot of how they viewed their roster. Morejn has been a steady bullpen piece for San Diego, the kind of arm managers tend to trust when games tighten up, while Warren has continued to draw attention in New York as a starter with upside and room to grow.
Reports had suggested the two sides explored a deal before the Yankees later denied that version of events, and the contrasting paths of the two pitchers make the non-trade easy to revisit. Still, one series is hardly enough to declare a winner or loser on a deadline call like this, which is why the Padres will keep getting judged on how Morejn holds up in their bullpen and whether passing on Warren leaves any lasting regret. [Read more 🡒]
Michael King Credited One Padres Decision For Saving His Start
Michael Kings latest outing looked shaky early, with hits, walks and even a hit batter threatening to turn his start into a short one. Instead, the Padres right-hander settled in and delivered six scoreless innings in a 5-0 win over the Reds, good for his career-high 15th quality start of the season and another reminder of how much stability he has brought to the rotation.
King said the difference came during a mound visit when manager Stammen chose to leave him in and show confidence rather than make a quick move. For a pitcher trying to work through trouble and keep the game within reach, that vote of faith mattered, and it helped turn a messy beginning into one of his cleanest finishes of the year. [Read more 🡒]