The playoff field is nearly set, but MLB’s final weekend still has plenty left to sort out.
Five of the six spots in each league are already spoken for, with the Padres, Cubs, White Sox and Guardians all punching their tickets yesterday. That leaves a handful of unresolved races, and a few of them are more tangled than they look.
Start with the AL West, where the winner may wind up with a dubious distinction. Houston and Texas are tied at 79-80, but the Astros own the tiebreaker after taking the season series 9-4.
Both clubs finish on the road against teams with nothing left to chase: Houston is at the A’s, while Texas is in Minnesota. The winner gets the division, while the loser is done.
The odd part is the record attached to that division crown. Unless one of these teams sweeps, the AL West winner will finish with the worst record ever for a full-season division champ in MLB history.
That mark belongs to the 2005 Padres, who went 82-80. There’s also a real chance the eventual winner becomes the first full-season team to reach the playoffs with a losing record.
The National League’s last opening is still up for grabs too, with the Phillies and Diamondbacks battling for the final wild-card spot. Philadelphia is up two games, but Arizona owns the tiebreaker because of its better division record. The Phillies are home against the Rays this weekend, while the Diamondbacks are in San Diego against a Padres team that has more to play for in the seeding race than in the wild-card chase itself.
Chicago and Cleveland are already headed to October, but neither club knows yet whether it will be playing in a wild-card round or getting the first-round bye that comes with the division title. Cleveland leads the AL Central at 83-76, with Chicago one game behind, and the White Sox hold the tiebreaker.
The payoff is huge: the Central winner gets the No. 2 seed. The rest of the American League has been weak enough that, as things stand, the division champion will be the No. 2 seed despite Cleveland owning only the 11th-best record in the majors.
If Cleveland were in the NL, it would be four games out of the final wild-card spot.
That setup also creates a strange bracket. In the most likely scenario, the Red Sox would open against the Yankees, and the AL West winner would draw the AL Central loser.
There is, however, a narrow path where the Red Sox, White Sox and Guardians all finish with 85 wins. If that happens, Chicago would beat Cleveland on the division tiebreaker, Cleveland would beat Boston on the wild-card tiebreaker, and the whole bracket would shift: Boston would fall to the No. 6 seed and face the AL West winner, while Cleveland would go to the Bronx to play the Yankees.
The NL seedings are unsettled as well. The Padres have 89 wins, the Cubs 88 and the Phillies 87, which means San Diego would host Chicago in the first round and Philadelphia would go to Atlanta to face the Braves if the standings held.
Chicago still owns the tiebreaker over every team alive in the NL race, but its path to home-field advantage got messier because of weather. A historic nor’easter affecting southern New England forced the Cubs’ series in Boston to be adjusted into a doubleheader today, with the finale set for Saturday night.
If Saturday’s game can’t be played, the whole thing could get even more complicated.
And a few things from last night stood out: Bijan Robinson’s sharp cut behind the line of scrimmage for a 31-yard gain, then an even better 55-yard run that left him with 194 yards and two touchdowns. George Lombard Jr. scored on a wild pitch with an acrobatic slide and later added a go-ahead homer in the eighth as the Yankees beat the Rays. Munetaka Murakami’s interview during the White Sox’ clubhouse celebration after they clinched a playoff spot was another highlight, and Jordi Paulina’s flying goal for Curaçao capped a comeback from 3-0 down at halftime to a 4-3 win over Costa Rica.
Northwestern visits Indiana at 8 p.m. on Fox in the Big Ten opener for both teams, and the defending national champions will be getting their first real test after wins over North Texas, Howard and Western Kentucky.
The Tigers’ run game clicked in last week’s win over North Carolina, and that could spell trouble for Cal. The Bears are allowing 169 rushing yards per game, including 277 in their lone loss to UCLA.
In Other News...
Tatis Just Turned A Padres Bullpen Question Into Front Office Pressure
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Now the question is less about whether Morejon has earned a strong case and more about whether the Padres are willing to act on it under their new ownership. Keeping a reliable arm in place always comes with financial tradeoffs, and Tatis public push adds a little more heat to a decision Preller already has to weigh carefully as San Diego looks ahead beyond this October run. [Read more 🡒]
Craig Stammen Made The Padres Embrace A Risky Plan At Last
In late July, Craig Stammen had plenty of reason to be skeptical about A.J. Prellers unconventional pitching plan. The Padres were trying to navigate a rotation that no longer fit the traditional mold, so the club began leaning on pitchers in specific matchup roles instead of asking them to work as classic starters. It was a risky shift, but one that matched the roster the Padres had in front of them.
Once Stammen embraced it, the approach helped steady the team through a useful stretch and kept San Diego in the race long enough to justify adding more pitching at the trade deadline. The arrangement also underscored how much of the burden on the rotation belonged to both Stammen and Preller, whose shared fingerprints were all over the problems and the fixes that followed. [Read more 🡒]
Padres Clinched A Spot But This Series Still Carries Real Stakes
The Padres may already have punched their ticket to October, but the margin for error is still thin as they open a series with the Diamondbacks, who remain alive in the playoff race. San Diego enters the matchup sitting atop the wild-card picture, and Arizona needs every game it can get, which gives this weekend an October feel even before the postseason begins.
Casey Mize is set to start the opener for San Diego against Brandon Pfaadt, and both clubs are likely to treat the series like a test run for the kind of decisions that get magnified in the playoffs. For the Padres, it is less about securing a berth now and more about lining up the rotation and navigating a game that still matters plenty in the standings. [Read more 🡒]