The Phillies went into the offseason with a clear shopping list, but the qualifying offer market may have made that list a lot harder to work through.
Philadelphia needs help in the outfield, and it needs it in a big way. The lineup is short on everyday answers there, with at least one starter required and probably two additions needed if the club wants manager Don Mattingly to have enough flexibility to mix and match.
The pitching staff has its own holes, too. The Phillies need a sixth starter who can cover rotation innings when necessary, and the bullpen still needs reinforcements to help bridge the gap to All-Star closer Jhoan Duran.
That was the setup. Then came the qualifying offer decisions around the league, and those choices changed the calculus.
The Phillies did not extend a qualifying offer to Alec Bohm, and that could end up mattering. Around MLB, eight players received the one-year, $23.15 million qualifying offer before the Nov. 2 deadline, and at least three of them would have fit Philadelphia’s needs cleanly: Seattle Mariners outfielder Randy Arozarena, Chicago Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki and San Diego Padres left-handed reliever Adrian Morejon.
But there’s a catch, and it’s a costly one. Because the Phillies exceeded the luxury tax, signing a player who declined a qualifying offer would force them to give up their second and fifth highest picks in the upcoming MLB draft, along with $1 million from their international bonus pool. If they signed multiple players who turned down the offer, the penalties would grow to include their third and sixth highest draft picks as well.
That’s where the Phillies’ offseason gets complicated.
Arozarena or Suzuki would give Philadelphia the kind of outfield upgrade it badly needs, but the price tag is no longer just money. The front office has to weigh whether the draft-pick hit and international pool loss are worth it, especially with a farm system already near the bottom of the league. The club has been in win-now mode, but there’s still a real question about how far it should go to land one of those bats.
Morejon presents a different kind of fit. He would give the Phillies a left-handed late-game bullpen option to pair with rising star Alex McFarlane ahead of Duran. Even so, the same problem applies: a long-term deal, multiple draft picks and $1 million in international bonus money is a steep cost for one reliever.
The Phillies have spent the last two winters leaning on one-year reclamation bets with Max Kepler and Adolis Garcia. That approach helped keep the roster moving, but it also leaves the same basic issue in place.
Arozarena, Suzuki and Morejon would all raise the team’s floor and ceiling right away. The question now is whether Philadelphia can actually afford the kind of penalties that come with them.
Eight players in all received the qualifying offer, and the deadline to accept it is Nov. 17. For the Phillies, the real deadline may be the moment they decide whether the upgrade is worth the cost.
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Morejns situation is especially notable because the qualifying offer is designed to give teams compensation if a player signs elsewhere, which can complicate the market for anyone attached to it. The group is a reminder of how quickly free agency can get tricky, and of how clubs have to weigh talent, cost and the draft-pick price tag that comes with letting a player walk. [Read more 🡒]