ESPN’s early forecast for the 2027 NBA Finals points to a familiar name at the top of the board: the Oklahoma City Thunder.
In a preseason projection released before the 2026-27 regular season and even before camp opens, ESPN put the Thunder first with 84 points. The San Antonio Spurs came in second with 74, while the New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers and Detroit Pistons rounded out the top five with 11, 10 and 6 points, respectively.
That gap at the top is the real headline. Oklahoma City’s total stands well ahead of the field, and ESPN’s projection has the Thunder winning 60 regular-season games and finishing as the No. 2 seed in the West behind a 62-win Spurs team led by Victor Wembanyama.
The Thunder’s case comes with some obvious questions. Lu Dort and Aaron Wiggins have left for the Atlanta Hawks, and Isaiah Joe was dealt to the Detroit Pistons for 2030 and 2031 second-round picks. That kind of turnover strips away depth, and depth matters when you’re trying to run the table in a crowded league.
San Antonio, meanwhile, looks built differently. ESPN’s setup has the Spurs keeping enough depth around Wembanyama and adding Tobias Harris, while Jayden Quaintance and Tarris Reed Jr. give them even more support. On paper, that group looks deeper than Oklahoma City’s.
The 76ers also enter the conversation with serious star power. Their projected lineup includes Joel Embiid, LeBron James, V.J.
Edgecombe, Tyrese Maxey and Jaylen Brown, a group that appears stronger than the Thunder’s at first glance. The Knicks are also in the mix as a team chasing a back-to-back, though the source notes they still have not addressed Mitchell Robinson’s departure.
So why does ESPN still lean Thunder? It comes back to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and whether the rest of the roster can rise with him. The Thunder have a back-to-back NBA MVP, and his shot creation and playmaking are viewed as unmatched right now.
There is still a catch, though. If Oklahoma City is going to make that forecast hold and chase two titles in three seasons, Ajay Mitchell and Cason Wallace will need to take on larger roles. That’s the kind of internal growth ESPN is betting on.
Veteran experience also sits at the center of the projection. The Spurs are still described as relatively young despite their NBA Finals experience, while the 76ers have not shown they have the chemistry to finish the job by 2027.
For now, ESPN’s numbers give the Thunder the edge over a Spurs team with a rising superstar, a Knicks team trying to stay on top, and a loaded 76ers roster. Whether that forecast survives contact with the next two seasons is the question hanging over it all.
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Castle also had a take on how the game sees him, and it sounded a lot like a player who is paying attention to the details. He pointed to a few areas hed still like to sharpen, especially around explosiveness and quickness, while also noting that his signature moves have been cleaned up from a year ago. For a player trying to keep pushing his game forward, even a virtual rating can feel like a small window into where he thinks the next step still is. [Read more 🡒]