Dylan Harper is already being treated like the next big Spurs breakout, and ESPN’s latest projection puts him in a very specific lane: James Harden territory, with a shot at the NBA Sixth Man of the Year award in 2026-27.
That’s a big swing, but the reasoning is pretty clear from what Harper just showed. In San Antonio’s postseason run en route to the NBA Finals, he was one of the rookies who didn’t blink.
Harper finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting, yet his play mattered when Victor Wembanyama “looked wonky.” He averaged 11.8 points on 50.5% shooting, along with 3.4 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 0.8 steals.
ESPN’s award forecast has Harper right near the top of the 6MOTY race. The list it published goes:
- Alex Caruso 34 points
- Dylan Harper 23 points
- Ajay Mitchell 22 points
- Reed Sheppard 20 points
That puts Harper second behind Caruso, and ahead of Mitchell and Sheppard. The wrinkle, of course, is that the two Thunder guards around him are also expected to have major bench responsibilities, which could split their production. Harper may face a similar issue in San Antonio, where Keldon Johnson won the 2025-26 NBA 6MOTY award.
ESPN’s own read on Harper was blunt about the upside: “Harper, on the other hand, who averaged 11.8 points and 3.9 assists, appears ready for the next step in NBA stardom. He was one of the few Spurs who didn't seem awed by the stage of the NBA Finals as a rookie. His talent demands a starting role, so the dance could be delicate this season as the Spurs try to balance their lineups, especially if Harper can make a James Harden-like jump as many expect,” ESPN declared.
The statistical projection backs up that idea. Harper’s 2026-27 per-36-minute outlook points to a major jump across the board: 19.2 points, .518 field-goal percentage, .360 from three, .772 at the line, 15.0 field-goal attempts, 6.1 assists, 5.7 rebounds, 0.6 blocks, 1.3 steals, 2.2 turnovers and .120 in WS/48. Compared with his rookie numbers, ESPN sees career highs in every category.
The Harden comparison isn’t coming out of nowhere either. Harper’s projected line is said to be close to the version of Harden that won Sixth Man of the Year in 2011-12, before Harden left the Thunder and became the top option in Houston.
The Spurs, though, are already trying to stay ahead of that kind of future. The reporting says Victor Wembanyama took a pay cut worth about $50 million so the team could keep Harper in place.
And that fits the larger picture in San Antonio. The names change, but the formula sounds familiar: a franchise built around star big men, with the kind of support pieces that help power 60-win seasons and deep playoff runs. That’s the lane Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili once occupied, and it’s the lane Harper is being projected toward now.
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Spurs Already Learned The Finals Lesson The Knicks Should Fear
The NBA's long view is already taking shape, and ESPN's Summer Forecast panel has gone out on a limb with its June 2027 Finals pick. The projection has the Oklahoma City Thunder meeting the New York Knicks, a pairing that would bring plenty of baggage for New York given its recent history against Oklahoma City and the lingering memory of how the Spurs handled the Knicks on the league's biggest stage.
San Antonio's own lesson from the 2026 Finals is the part that still hangs in the air. The Spurs were in position to close out the title, only to let the chance slip away, and that kind of experience tends to travel with a team. If these two franchises cross paths again, the Spurs would have the benefit of having lived through the mistake once already, while the Knicks would be left wondering whether the same pressure points are waiting for them again. [Read more 🡒]
Spurs Suddenly Have A Young Core Debate Few Teams Can Match
The Spurs have gone from a rebuild built around promise to one suddenly rich with options, and CBS Sports recently took notice by placing Victor Wembanyama alongside either Stephon Castle or Dylan Harper at the top of the NBAs young-duo conversation. It is the kind of recognition that speaks to how quickly San Antonios foundation has changed, with Wembanyama already establishing himself as the franchise centerpiece and the supporting talent around him looking more and more like it belongs in a serious long-term plan.
What makes the debate so compelling is that the Spurs may not be limited to a simple two-man discussion for long. Castle and Harper both bring the kind of upside that gives San Antonio enviable flexibility, and DeAaron Fox only adds another layer to a core that can be argued with the leagues best groups on paper. For a team that has spent years chasing the next wave, the bigger question now is not whether the talent is real, but how far this cluster of high-end pieces can push the organization once it fully settles in. [Read more 🡒]
Kevin Garnett Nostalgia Is Creating A New Timberwolves Debate
The basketball card market keeps finding new ways to reward collectors chasing the stars of the 1990s, and San Antonios place in that conversation is no small one. Alongside names like Allen Iverson and Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan has been part of a broader surge that has pushed values higher across the hobby, with cards tied to that era drawing fresh attention from buyers who once might have focused mostly on the biggest marquee names from Kobe Bryant to Shaquille O'Neal.
For Spurs fans, the intrigue is less about nostalgia than about what it says regarding Duncans standing in the games collecting economy. Recent auction results and sharp price increases have shown that there is real demand building around his cards, but the market is still sorting out just how high that ceiling can go as the hobby reassesses players whose prime came before todays boom in card speculation. [Read more 🡒]