Mitch Johnson’s first Spurs team is going to live or die with the jumper.
That’s the cleanest way to read this thing as San Antonio gets ready to see its new-look, point-guard-heavy group in regular season action. The roster has enough talent to create its own identity, but the shape of that identity will depend on one very simple question: can the Spurs shoot well enough to make everything else work?
De’Aaron Fox didn’t dance around it.
"When we're making shots, it allows other guys to be able to get downhill. We can spread the defense out, and teams know what we want to do.
There's no secret about it. So, a lot of our season, a lot of how special that first group can be, it's going to be predicated on how we shoot the ball."
That’s the whole story in one quote. If the shots are falling, the floor opens up. If they aren’t, the margin shrinks fast.
And preseason at least offered a promising glimpse. The sample was tiny, but the early numbers out of San Antonio’s point guards were encouraging:
De’Aaron Fox - 4-7 from three (57.1%) in two games
Dylan Harper - 8-14 from three (57.1%) in four games
Stephon Castle - 3-8 from three (37.5%) in four games
Put that together and you get a combined 51.7% from deep from the Spurs’ point guards in the preseason, which is the kind of number that can make a lineup look unstoppable. Nobody expects Fox and Harper to spend the whole season above 50 percent from three, but they don’t need that to happen.
Good shooting would be enough. Strong shooting would be enough.
The point is that this group doesn’t need miracles - just enough spacing to let the talent breathe.
The first real test comes on October 20 against OKC, and that matchup should tell us something. The Thunder will bring a defense built to swarm both shooters and drivers, so opening night should give a clearer picture of what this lineup can and can’t do. It still won’t settle the argument, but it will matter.
There’s also another piece Fox didn’t bring up, even if it’s lurking underneath all of this: the rebounding. The Spurs should be able to live with their perimeter defense, but the question is whether they can survive on the glass against bigger teams.
Over the course of the regular season, they’ll be able to lean into small lineups more often. In a seven-game series, that same approach could become a problem.
Still, Mitch Johnson has one real advantage here: he gets to adjust. He’s already shown a willingness to change things up, and Harrison Barnes is the example that stands out, since he went from starter to bench player during the regular season last year. If Johnson keeps using the roster’s flexibility and isn’t afraid to reshape the rotation when needed, the Spurs should be in good shape.
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Reeds challenge now is less about the idea and more about the transition from preseason moments to regular-season demands. The Spurs have the flexibility to mix and match around him, but if they want that interior presence to actually matter against physical opponents, he needs early minutes and a chance to settle into the pace and pressure of real games. [Read more 🡒]
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For the Spurs, it is another reminder of just how rare Wembanyama is, even in a league that keeps finding new ways to stockpile size. Jamarion Sharp, who measures 7-5, was waived by Toronto and could wind up in the G League, so the coming season still has room for more height drama, even if the spotlight on the tallest player in the sport is about to shift. [Read more 🡒]
Spurs Just Sent A Strong Early Message About Building Around Wemby
The Spurs are already signaling how they want to frame this season around Victor Wembanyama, and the early answer is a fast, versatile lineup that puts a lot of ballhandling and creation around him. Mitch Johnson confirmed he plans to open with DeAaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper together with Devin Vassell and Wembanyama, a five-man group that gives San Antonio another look at how its newest pieces fit alongside its franchise centerpiece. The alignment is not entirely new, either, after the Spurs used it in a win over Phoenix and got a glimpse of how much pace and pressure it can create.
There are still moving parts behind the scenes, starting with Fox, who said he played through a high ankle sprain during the playoffs, and Keldon Johnson, who said he dropped weight and feels better physically after a productive summer. Those details matter because the Spurs are not just trying to stack talent, they are trying to build something sustainable around Wembanyama, and the opener will offer the first real read on how far this group can go when the games count. [Read more 🡒]