The injury fallout in Oklahoma City has already started to reshape how one NBA voice sees the championship race.
After the Thunder suffered potential season-ending injuries to Cason Wallace and Jalen Williams, The Ringer’s Zach Lowe moved the Spurs up in his title thinking. Lowe had previously picked Oklahoma City to beat San Antonio in the Western Conference Finals and go on to win the championship, but he has now dropped the Thunder to a 10% chance of taking it all.
That kind of swing matters. If Oklahoma City is forced to play the rest of the season without both starters, San Antonio’s road back to the Finals suddenly looks a lot less steep. It’s not the kind of matchup the Spurs would necessarily want, especially if the goal is to measure themselves against the best version of the Thunder, but the reality of the West is starting to shift.
The conference has been hit hard by injuries, and that opens the door for San Antonio if it can hold up physically. Lowe’s adjustment is a clear sign he now sees the Spurs in a better spot, even though they still have plenty to prove after moving away from the starting lineup that helped power their NBA Finals run last season.
The new look is built around a 3-point guard group: De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Devin Vasell, and Victor Wembanyama. San Antonio is hoping that combination gives it a bigger edge than before. At full strength, Oklahoma City had already handled that lineup, but without Wallace and Williams, the Spurs suddenly look better positioned against the Thunder and the rest of the field.
There’s real upside in what San Antonio is showing early. Fox has taken on more of the playmaking load and has been effective as a shot creator.
Castle has turned into a high-volume 3-point shooter. Harper has also made his presence felt, averaging 18.2 points and 5.2 rebounds through the team’s first four games.
If that trio can produce around 55 points and 15 assists a night, the Spurs become a brutal team to solve. And that’s before even getting to Wembanyama, who is averaging 25 points per game after shaking off an awful opening night performance.
Oklahoma City still stands in the way, at least for now. But if the Silver and Black can make that point guard setup click, Lowe’s shift suggests they may be looking at a team with a real chance to be the best in the NBA.
The hope, at least from the Spurs’ side, is that the Thunder find a way to trade back into contention and make a future rematch possible. For this season, though, San Antonio may already have the stronger hand.
In Other News...
Wembanyama May Finally Have What He Needs Against Jokic
The Nuggets have already given up early ground with losses to Oklahoma City and Golden State, and the bigger concern has been the way they have looked around the rim. That matters for San Antonio, because the Spurs are still sorting through a slow start of their own but have the kind of two-way personnel that should make them better as the season settles in.
All of that puts the spotlight back on the matchup everyone wants to see: Nikola Jokic against Victor Wembanyama. Jokic has had the upper hand in their previous meetings, but this feels like the kind of game where Wembanyama can finally have the support around him to make the duel look different, and perhaps shift the tone of that one-on-one history before it becomes another familiar script. [Read more 🡒]
Spurs Suddenly Have A Real Wing Question Around Wemby
The Spurs have already made one notable move to patch a roster need, bringing in Tobias Harris, but his availability remains uncertain as he works through a left calf strain ahead of the season opener. With San Antonio off to an 0-2 start, the attention around the roster has shifted quickly from what was added to what still might be missing, especially on the wing around Victor Wembanyama.
Shooting has been part of the conversation for a while, and the Spurs playoff issues from beyond the arc have only sharpened it. That has fueled talk that San Antonio could keep looking for help and explore a trade for Denver wing Cam Johnson, a possibility that would speak directly to the teams need for more reliable spacing and another proven option on the perimeter. [Read more 🡒]
Spurs Bench Struggles Are Raising A Bigger Dylan Harper Debate
Mitch Johnson has made it clear he is not hanging the Spurs bench issues on Luke Kornet alone. After recent criticism of the backup center, the coach pushed the conversation toward the players around him, while Keldon Johnson and Victor Wembanyama also acknowledged the groups defensive challenges and the growing strain on the system when the second unit is on the floor.
Beneath that broader concern is a sharper roster question involving Dylan Harper. His move into the starting lineup has changed the shape of San Antonios rotation, and the bench has not looked as steady since. Harpers efficiency has also shifted from one season to the next, adding another layer to a debate the Spurs are likely to keep revisiting as they try to settle on the right balance. [Read more 🡒]