A week into the season, the Western Conference looks crowded with unbeaten teams, but the record book is only telling part of the story. Houston, Memphis, Portland and Oklahoma City are all still perfect, yet each one comes with a different kind of asterisk. San Antonio has already taken two losses, and with Utah on deck, then the Anthony Edwards-less Timberwolves, and then another meeting with the Jazz, the Spurs have a chance to start building some traction.
For now, the smartest move is to separate the teams that are truly worth worrying about from the ones enjoying a good October stretch.
Houston is the easiest place to start because the numbers are impossible to ignore. The Rockets sit atop the league in adjusted net rating at plus-23.3, and their adjusted offense is humming at 128.2.
That makes them the hottest team in the NBA on paper, even if that doesn’t mean they’re built to stay there. Kevin Durant is 38 and playing 35.3 minutes a night, which is a workload that will matter later.
He’s putting up 23.5 points while shooting 53.7% from the field and 47.1% from three, but the question is what that looks like in May. Ime Udoka is a legitimately good coach, and Houston should be a strong team in April.
Still, the skepticism is real, and it starts with Alperen Sengun, whose production the source doesn’t trust to carry over when the playoffs arrive.
The Thunder are unbeaten too, but their situation is different. This is the kind of start that can hide the cost of an offseason decision until the injuries start piling up.
Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe were all sent out over the summer for second-round picks, and nothing came back in return. Then Jalen Williams dislocated his ankle and fractured his fibula, Cason Wallace tore his labrum, and both need surgery.
Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso are also out with injuries right now.
Oklahoma City still has one of the best defenses in basketball, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to stack wins all season long. But that isn’t the same thing as being a true title threat.
The concern is not whether the Thunder can win games in October and November; it’s whether they can survive the depth loss and still be standing in the spring. As currently built, the answer here is no, though Sam Presti still has the assets to change the picture.
Memphis has also opened 4-0, but the resume is softer than the record suggests. The opponents so far have been Utah twice, Golden State and Sacramento, and those three teams are a combined 2-10.
Two of Memphis’ wins came by five points and three points. That’s not exactly a murderers’ row.
Ty Jerome has been terrific, and that matters, but the team’s plus-7.5 adjusted net rating is still the lightest profile among the West’s hot starts. This is a good bad team, not a great one, and eventually that catches up.
Portland, on the other hand, is one of the surprises worth taking seriously. The Trail Blazers own the NBA’s best raw offensive rating at 126.8, and the Ja Morant-Damian Lillard backcourt has clicked in a way few people expected.
The defense has held up well enough, too, sitting 13th at 109.9. That’s a respectable number, especially with those two on the floor together.
Morant and Toumani Camara probably won’t keep shooting 44.4% and 59.1% from three, but even with some regression, Portland’s offense looks real. The bigger question is whether the defense can hold up in a seven-game series once an opponent has time to prepare.
The Lakers are the opposite of Portland in this exercise: easy to like offensively, easy to worry about everywhere else. Luka Doncic has plenty of believers, and for good reason, but the source’s argument is blunt - that alone won’t be enough.
Los Angeles has the league’s second-best offense at 126.7, but its defense is 22nd at 117.6. That showed up in a big way when Portland hung 136 on them last night.
Their three wins have come against Golden State, the Clippers and Utah, which doesn’t exactly scream durability. They’ll win plenty of regular-season games, but the defense looks too weak to survive when the games get tighter.
Minnesota is still the team that draws the strongest buy signal, even with Anthony Edwards now sidelined. Before the injury, the Timberwolves were already looking like one of the most complete teams in the conference, with a top-three defensive rating at 100.5 and a top-five offensive rating at 117.3. LaMelo is actually guarding people in Minnesota, Jaden McDaniels is thriving in his role, and Edwards was giving them 33.3 points per game while shooting 40% from three like an MVP candidate.
Now Edwards is expected to miss up to two months after surgery on his right knee, so the Wolves won’t look the same without him. That will cost them some wins in the regular season. But if he comes back healthy in January, Minnesota could still be a major problem on both ends of the floor.
The conference has not sorted itself out yet. There are undefeated teams, sure, but several of them have been beating opponents who can’t guard a parked car. San Antonio still has room to shape the race, and when the dust settles, the expectation here is that the Silver and Black will be on top.
In Other News...
Spurs Suddenly Have A Tough Decision Behind Wembanyama
The Spurs are still sorting through the early-season edges of their rotation, and the center minutes behind Victor Wembanyama are already drawing attention after two home losses in the first three games. Mitch Johnson singled out rookie Tarris Reed Jr. for the energy and defense he brought against Dallas, a useful sign for a team trying to find steadier footing when Wembanyama rests.
Luke Kornet entered the season looking like part of that backup equation, but Reeds early showing gives San Antonio a different kind of option to consider. If the Spurs want more resistance and activity in those non-Wembanyama stretches, the frontcourt mix may not stay fixed for long, and that is the sort of decision that can shape not just a game, but the rhythm of an entire rotation. [Read more 🡒]
Spurs Suddenly Have A Real Chance To Upgrade Around Wembanyama
Injuries to Anthony Edwards and Jalen Williams have turned the Spurs roster-building conversations into something more immediate, and it has them looking at ways to sharpen the group around Victor Wembanyama. The appeal is obvious: San Antonio needs more defense and more dependable shooting, and the kind of upgrades that once felt like long-shot ideas suddenly feel more plausible when the market shifts.
Two names that surface in those discussions are PJ Washington and Royce ONeale, each offering a different fit for what the Spurs are trying to build. Washington would bring frontcourt versatility, while ONeale would add another wing who can defend and space the floor, but neither idea is simple, and any move would still depend on player availability and approvals before it goes anywhere. [Read more 🡒]
Spurs Have A New Frost Bank Center Feel Players Are Talking About
The Frost Bank Center has a different look these days, and it is the kind of arena tweak players tend to notice right away. San Antonio has installed a new lighting system that puts more emphasis on the court while dimming the seating areas, bringing the building in line with what many other NBA venues already do.
Luke Kornet has already picked up on the change and talked about how it alters the atmosphere inside the building, giving games a sharper focus once the lights go down. Coach Mitch Johnson, meanwhile, has not made much of the adjustment himself, which only adds to the sense that this is one of those subtle arena changes that matters more to the people on the floor than the people running the team. [Read more 🡒]