Spurs' Ceiling May Come Down To One Wemby Problem

The Spurs are banking on a strategic revamp of their guard lineup to unleash Wembanyama's full potential and counter defensive tactics like those from the Knicks.

The Spurs’ answer to the kind of Wemby defense the Knicks used begins with the players around Victor Wembanyama, and it starts on the perimeter.

San Antonio has plenty to sort through with Stephon Castle, De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper in the same backcourt mix, but the biggest question isn’t only whether the three guards fit together. It’s whether they can make life easier for Wembanyama.

Their shooting, especially from the corner, is the hinge point. If that part comes along, it opens up cleaner scoring chances for The Alien.

That’s where the concern comes in. Floor spacing looks like the main issue with this three-guard setup.

Castle, Fox and Harper can all create their own looks, but the way they complement one another will decide how effective the group really is. If they aren’t dependable from deep as a unit, defenses will keep shrinking the floor, clogging driving lanes and daring San Antonio to beat them from outside.

That problem becomes even bigger when Wembanyama is involved. If defenders don’t have to respect those corner shots, it gets easier for them to sit on his path to the paint and make his touches harder.

The Knicks showed one way to do that in the NBA Finals. They were effective at slowing Wembanyama by tagging him in the pick-and-roll and cutting off his interior scoring, which pushed him toward outside shots.

When Wemby came up to set ball screens, New York kept a weakside perimeter defender ready to help from the deep corner and bump him on the roll, taking away his downhill route to the rim. OG Anunoby filled that role at times, using his size to stop the seven-footer and disrupt the possession.

That kind of coverage is the sort of thing teams around the league will try to copy, which means the Spurs need a counter ready. And the cleanest answer is to have corner shooters who can punish the help defender for sinking in. If Castle, Fox and Harper are going to thrive next to Wembanyama, they have to knock down those long-range looks often enough to make teams think twice about tagging.

There are other reasons this three-guard look can help against that coverage, too. It gives San Antonio multiple players who can handle the ball and make the right read.

The guard with the ball in the pick-and-roll has to recognize the tag coming from the weak side and fire a tough skip pass to the opposite corner. Harper, Castle and Fox should all be able to make that play this season.

And once the ball swings all the way across the floor, the defender has a longer closeout to make. That should suit this group just fine, because all three guards have the speed and quickness to attack the closeout and get downhill for a better shot.

So the tools are there. The on-ball skill is there.

But the whole thing still comes back to shooting. If defenders are happy to live with those attempts, the driving lanes disappear.

The same logic applies to Wembanyama. The easier it is for opponents to ignore the corner and load up on the roll, the simpler it becomes to tag him and keep him from getting to the basket.

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The race will still have familiar heavyweights around it, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo all part of the conversation. But the real weight on Wembanyama is clear: this is the sort of projection that depends on him staying on the floor and the Spurs looking like one of the Wests best teams. For a player this young, the expectation is already enormous, and the season ahead could turn that buzz into something much bigger. [Read more 🡒]