Phil Jackson, the legendary coach known for his wisdom and knack for managing superstar egos, often used creative strategies to keep his teams focused during the grueling NBA season. One of his most famous principles is the "40 before 20" rule.
This concept suggests that if a team reaches 40 wins before hitting 20 losses, they're strong contenders for an NBA championship. Remarkably, 18 of the last 19 champions have met this criterion, highlighting its significance.
With the Boston Celtics recently dropping out of the "40 before 20" race after a loss to the Denver Nuggets, this season presents us with three teams in this elite club: the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, and Detroit Pistons. These teams are now seen as potential championship contenders.
However, it's not a guaranteed path to the title. The NBA playoffs are unpredictable, and other formidable teams are lurking, ready to challenge the status quo.
The Strength of the 40-20 Rule
The Thunder, Spurs, and Pistons are historically well-positioned for a title run. Law Murray, a respected NBA analyst, has delved into the "40 before 20" rule, noting its robust track record, especially since the introduction of the 3-point line in 1979. Murray points out that only 17 out of 79 champions failed to achieve the 40-before-20 mark, underscoring the rule's predictive power.
While the Thunder are favorites following last season's championship, sportsbooks currently place the Denver Nuggets ahead of the Spurs, with the Cleveland Cavaliers and Celtics favored over the Pistons. For teams outside the 40-before-20 club, history suggests they'll likely need to overcome one of these top contenders to claim the championship.
Murray emphasizes, "The goal is to be a 40-before-20 team. But if not, being the team that can beat one is crucial." He cites examples like the 2021 Bucks and 2006 Miami Heat, who overcame 40-before-20 teams en route to their titles.
Despite not making the 40-before-20 cut, teams like the Nuggets, Cavaliers, and Celtics remain strong contenders. The New York Knicks, Houston Rockets, and Minnesota Timberwolves also pose a threat as the playoffs approach.
Another Milestone to Watch
As the playoffs near, another key benchmark is whether contenders can stay under 30 losses for the season. Since 1979, only the 1995 Rockets and 2006 Heat have won championships with 30 or more regular-season losses. Teams like the 2022 Warriors and 2023 Nuggets finished with 29 losses but still made strong playoff runs.
It would take a significant downturn for any current 40-before-20 team to approach 30 losses this season. However, for those betting on a champion from outside the top favorites, ending the regular season on a high note is crucial.
In conclusion, while the "40 before 20" rule offers a strong historical indicator of championship potential, the unpredictable nature of the NBA playoffs ensures that nothing is set in stone. Fans should keep an eye on all contenders as the race heats up.