Since the NBA revamped its draft lottery odds in 2019, the league has tried to put a lid on tanking by flattening the chances for the league’s worst teams. The idea was simple: remove the incentive to lose by reducing the guaranteed reward.
The team with the worst record used to have a 25% shot at the No. 1 pick - now it’s just 14%, the same as the second- and third-worst teams. But here in 2026, we’re staring at a Sacramento Kings team that’s giving the old tanking blueprint a fresh coat of paint.
After dropping their 13th straight game - a franchise single-season record - in a 26-point loss to the Pelicans, the Kings sit at 12-43, dead last in the NBA standings. That puts them right in the thick of the race for the league’s top lottery odds, alongside Indiana and Washington. And while all three teams technically have the same 14% shot at landing the No. 1 pick, there’s still a subtle but significant edge to finishing with the worst record.
Here’s why: under the current system, no team can fall more than four spots from their pre-lottery position. So if Sacramento ends the season in 30th, the worst-case scenario is picking fifth.
But if they finish 29th? They could slide all the way to sixth.
That’s a meaningful difference in a draft where the top four prospects - Kansas guard Darryn Peterson, BYU wing AJ Dybantsa, Duke forward Cameron Boozer, and UNC’s Caleb Wilson - are widely seen as a tier of their own.
The odds may be flatter, but the math still matters.
Let’s break it down: if the season ended today, Sacramento would have a 14% shot at the No. 1 pick, 13.4% at No. 2, 12.7% at No. 3, and a 47.9% chance of landing at No. 5 - their most likely outcome.
That’s not exactly reassuring for a team in desperate need of a franchise-altering talent. And history hasn’t been kind to teams in their position.
Since the lottery reform in 2019, the team with the worst record has yet to land the top pick. Not once.
In fact, in each of the past three seasons, the worst team has ended up picking fifth - the lowest possible result under the current format. That’s a tough pill to swallow for any front office banking on a game-changer.
Let’s take a quick look at how the top of the lottery has shaken out over the last seven years:
NBA Draft Lottery Top 4 Picks Since 2019:
- 2019: 1st - Pelicans (7th-best odds), 2nd - Grizzlies (8th), 3rd - Knicks (1st), 4th - Lakers (11th)
- 2020: 1st - Timberwolves (3rd), 2nd - Warriors (2nd), 3rd - Hornets (8th), 4th - Bulls (7th)
- 2021: 1st - Pistons (2nd), 2nd - Rockets (1st), 3rd - Cavaliers (5th), 4th - Raptors (7th)
- 2022: 1st - Magic (2nd), 2nd - Thunder (4th), 3rd - Rockets (1st), 4th - Kings (7th)
- 2023: 1st - Spurs (3rd), 2nd - Hornets (4th), 3rd - Trail Blazers (5th), 4th - Rockets (2nd)
- 2024: 1st - Hawks (10th), 2nd - Wizards (2nd), 3rd - Nets (9th), 4th - Spurs (5th)
- 2025: 1st - Mavericks (11th), 2nd - Spurs (8th), 3rd - 76ers (5th), 4th - Hornets (3rd)
The trend is clear: the ping-pong balls have not been kind to the league’s cellar dwellers. The worst team has never won the lottery since the odds were flattened.
Meanwhile, teams with the second and third-worst records have each landed the top pick twice. And last year, Dallas pulled off the unthinkable, leaping from the 11th-best odds (1.8%) to grab the No. 1 pick and select Cooper Flagg - a move that could reshape the franchise for years.
So while the Kings are technically in the driver’s seat for the top pick, history says they should buckle up for a bumpy ride. That 14% chance might look nice on paper, but it’s far from a sure thing. And in a draft where the top four prospects are seen as potential franchise cornerstones, falling to fifth could mean missing out on a game-changing talent.
Of course, the lottery isn’t an exact science. Jokic was a second-round pick.
Giannis went 15th. There are no guarantees, even in the top five.
But for a team like Sacramento - stuck in a brutal losing streak and searching for direction - the stakes on May 10th couldn’t be higher.
The Kings still have time to right the ship, or at least stop the bleeding. Their next shot comes Wednesday against the Utah Jazz, the final game before the All-Star break. A loss would tie the 1971-72 Cincinnati Royals for the longest losing streak in franchise history at 14 games.
Here’s what the Kings’ upcoming schedule looks like:
- Wednesday, Feb. 11: @ Jazz - 6:00 PM PT
- Thursday, Feb. 19: vs. Magic - 7:00 PM PT
- Saturday, Feb. 21: @ Spurs - 5:00 PM PT
- Monday, Feb. 23: @ Grizzlies - 5:00 PM PT
- Wednesday, Feb. 25: @ Rockets - 5:00 PM PT
Whether or not Sacramento can snap the skid before the break, their front office will be watching the standings - and those lottery odds - with intense focus. Because in this system, every loss might hurt in the moment, but it could be the difference between landing a foundational piece or picking just outside the top tier.
May 10th is circled on every calendar in the Kings’ front office. The ping-pong balls will do what they do. All Sacramento can do now is hope that, for once, the worst team catches a break.