Week 1 is here, and the board already offers plenty to chew on with 11 games on tap tonight. Rather than trying to force a side in every matchup, the cleaner play in one of the night’s most intriguing games is the OVER in Colorado vs. Georgia Tech.
That pick starts with Georgia Tech, which showed real juice on offense last season. The Yellow Jackets finished 10th in the country in EPA per play and second in offensive success rate. The problem was what happened when they didn’t have the ball: Georgia Tech’s defense came in at 120th in opponent EPA per play and 111th in defensive success rate.
Colorado brings its own reasons to expect points. Neither side of the ball was especially sharp last season, but the quarterback battle went to Lewis, and that at least gives the Buffaloes a path to improvement.
He’ll also have wide receiver Danny Scudero, the San Jose State transfer who posted 1,297 receiving yards last season. That kind of explosive target is exactly the sort of weapon Colorado lacked a year ago, and it should help push this one toward a high-scoring finish.
Another game where the number feels too heavy is Illinois-UAB. Illinois is still expected to win, but there are enough concerns on the defensive side to make the points attractive.
The Illini were one of the worst defenses in the country last year, finishing 120th in defensive success rate, and then they lost their two best players, Gabe Jacas and Miles Scott, to the NFL Draft. On top of that, they didn’t do much in the transfer portal to patch things up.
That opens the door for UAB, which enters with a fresh start under Mortensen in his first year as head coach. Illinois should be in position to take the game, but the spread looks a little too ambitious. The Blazers are the side worth taking with the points.
The other play on the card is Rutgers laying points against UMass. That’s a tough sell for the Minutemen, who have been one of the most difficult teams to back in college football.
UMass has spent years scraping together just a couple wins a season, and last year it went winless while also failing to cover on a weekly basis. The last winning season for the Minutemen came back in 2008, when they finished 7-5.
This year’s outlook doesn’t look much different. Rutgers has enough talent to run away from a UMass team that doesn’t appear equipped to slow down KJ Duff or much of anything else in the secondary. In a matchup like this, laying the points makes sense.
In Other News...
Rutgers Fans Are Facing The Greg Schiano Question Again
Greg Schiano is back in the familiar spot Rutgers fans know all too well: the season has barely started, and the conversation is already shifting from results to his future. Now in his seventh year of his second stint in charge, he enters 2026 with a 31-41 record in this return engagement, a number that has kept the scrutiny around the program from ever really going away.
The latest jolt came in the season opener, when Rutgers lost to UMass after falling behind by 17 points at halftime against a team carrying a long active losing streak. For a fan base still measuring progress against expectations, the larger issue is now unavoidable again because Schianos contract carries a buyout that would cost the school about $17.3 million if he were let go at seasons end. [Read more 🡒]
Rutgers Just Opened The Season With A Loss Fans Cant Ignore
Rutgers opened the season with a result that will linger well beyond Week 1, falling 37-21 to UMass in a game that the Scarlet Knights were expected to control. The Minutemen arrived carrying a 16-game losing streak against FBS opponents, but they played with far more edge than the odds suggested and put Rutgers in an early hole that never really disappeared.
Pop Watson was the spark for UMass, guiding an offense that found rhythm through the air and enough movement on the ground to keep Rutgers from settling in defensively. The Minutemen also tightened up in a way that changes the conversation around them after a rough run of seasons, getting into the backfield consistently and creating problems all afternoon, while Rutgers is left sorting through how a season-opening setback like this happened so quickly. [Read more 🡒]
Rutgers Just Suffered A Home Loss Fans Wont Forget
Rutgers walked into Thursday night expecting to protect its home field, but instead got caught in one of the more jarring results of the season. Massachusetts, which had been carrying a long losing streak against FBS opponents, came away with a 37-21 upset after a game that was tied before the Minutemen seized control, and the Scarlet Knights were left to answer for a sloppy performance that never recovered.
The damage came largely through Rutgers quarterback Dylan Lonergan, who was pressured into four turnovers as Massachusetts kept finding ways to extend the margin. Pop Watson guided the UMass offense efficiently and repeatedly made Rutgers pay, turning a rare road win into a statement result and leaving the Scarlet Knights with plenty to sort through after a home loss that will linger. [Read more 🡒]