If Ohio State wants to be taken seriously in the Big Ten title conversation, it has to start defending its home court like it means something. That hasn’t been the case in recent years. Since the start of the 2022-23 season, the Buckeyes have dropped 18 games at home-an eye-popping number for a program with championship aspirations.
This Saturday, they’ll get another shot at flipping that script when UCLA comes to town. Both teams are sitting in the middle of the Big Ten pack-Ohio State at 11-5 overall (3-3 in the conference), UCLA at 12-5 (4-4)-and both could use a statement win to solidify their postseason resumes. There’s a lot on the line in Columbus.
The Backcourt Battle: Bruce Thornton vs. Donovan Dent
Let’s start with the marquee matchup: Bruce Thornton vs. Donovan Dent. This is the kind of one-on-one battle that can swing a game-and maybe a season.
Thornton has been the engine for Ohio State all year. He’s not just scoring at a high clip (20.5 points per game), he’s doing it efficiently, knocking down 44% of his threes while also chipping in 5.2 rebounds and nearly 4 assists per night. He’s been the Buckeyes’ best offensive weapon and their top perimeter defender.
Dent, meanwhile, came into the season with All-American buzz but has struggled to find his rhythm in Westwood. He’s in the middle of a brutal shooting slump-he went 0-for-6 against Penn State-and hasn’t looked like the same explosive scorer we saw flashes of last year. That said, he’s still a threat in transition and can get downhill quickly, especially if Ohio State’s rim protection doesn’t hold up.
Expect Thornton to draw the defensive assignment on Dent. If he can stay in front of him on ball screens and prevent him from turning the corner, Ohio State can neutralize one of UCLA’s few consistent creators.
Juni Mobley: The X-Factor
If Ohio State is going to get the win, they’re going to need a strong showing from sophomore guard Juni Mobley. He’s a microwave scorer who can catch fire from deep-but also someone who can go ice cold just as quickly.
Mobley has shown flashes of brilliance this season, including a stretch where he hit 14 threes across three games against Nebraska, Rutgers, and Grambling State. But he’s also coming off a rough outing against Washington, where he managed just 3 points on 1-of-5 shooting and turned the ball over three times.
UCLA’s defense under Mick Cronin is built around aggressive help and hedges, which can leave them vulnerable to off-ball movement and perimeter shooting. That’s where Mobley comes in.
If he can find space and knock down shots, he could be the difference-maker. But if he struggles to get going, Ohio State’s offense could stall out.
Handling Tyler Bilodeau
While Dent gets the headlines, Tyler Bilodeau has been UCLA’s most consistent and dangerous player this season. The 6-foot-9 forward is a versatile offensive weapon-he can stretch the floor with pick-and-pop threes, work from the mid-post, and punish defenders who reach with a crafty rip-through move that gets him to the line.
He’s flirting with elite efficiency numbers, just a few free throws shy of joining the coveted 50-40-90 club, and he’s been in a groove lately, scoring in double figures in 10 straight games.
Ohio State’s frontcourt will have its hands full. They’ll likely rotate bodies on him-freshman Amare Bynum, veteran Devin Royal, and possibly 7-footer Christoph Tilly if he’s healthy. But the Buckeyes have had issues with pick-and-pop bigs all season, and Bilodeau is exactly the kind of player who can exploit that.
The Matchup Breakdown
There are a few areas where Ohio State holds a clear edge. For one, they’ve been excellent at limiting transition opportunities-a key against a player like Dent, who thrives in the open floor. If they can force UCLA to play in the halfcourt, the Bruins’ offensive limitations become more apparent.
UCLA’s rim attack has been one of the least effective in the country against high-major opponents, with just a 30% rim rate. That’s a big deal considering Ohio State’s interior defense has been shaky at times. If the Bruins can’t get to the paint consistently and are forced into a jump-shooting contest, the Buckeyes have the advantage.
Ohio State also has enough shooting and playmaking to challenge UCLA’s pressure defense. The Bruins don’t have a true rim protector to make the Buckeyes second-guess drives or post-ups, and without that anchor, Ohio State’s offense should be able to find quality looks.
Add in the fact that UCLA is wrapping up a long road trip and could be without veteran guard Skyy Clark (hamstring, doubtful), and the odds tilt further in Ohio State’s favor. This feels like a game where the Buckeyes pull away late and finally start to reestablish some home-court dominance.
Pick: Ohio State -3.5