Michigan’s season has slid into a rough patch, and now the Wolverines head into Week 9 trying to stop the bleeding on the road against Rutgers.
Michigan has dropped three of its last four, with the latest setback a 13-6 overtime loss to Indiana. Even with that skid, oddsmakers still see the Wolverines as a sizable road favorite over a Scarlet Knights team that has only two wins this season. Rutgers’ lone Big Ten victory came in Week 7 against Maryland.
One of the bigger questions for Michigan is who it gets under center. Tommy Carr is expected to make his second straight start for the Wolverines.
Last week, he went 20-of-32 for 167 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. That was his first start as a true freshman, and it came against the defending national champions, so the performance gets some context.
The test should be different this week against a more manageable Rutgers defense.
Still, the bigger problem for Michigan may be more fundamental than the quarterback situation. The Wolverines have struggled badly to establish the run, and that has dragged down the offense overall. Michigan ranks 104th in EPA per rush, and that lack of ground-game punch makes it hard to trust them to do enough to cover.
Rutgers, meanwhile, has quietly been better on offense than many would expect. The Scarlet Knights rank 53rd in adjusted EPA per play and 56th in offensive success rate, which gives them at least a fighting chance to keep this one from getting away.
I can’t trust the Michigan offense to score enough to cover this spread. Even with Tommy Carr at quarterback, I haven’t seen enough to believe in the Wolverines in any capacity.
In Other News...
Rutgers Gets Michigan At The Perfect Time For A QB Debate
Michigan arrives on Rutgers schedule with one of the more awkward quarterback situations in the Big Ten, which is hardly ideal for a Scarlet Knights defense that would rather know what it is getting before kickoff. Freshman Tommy Carr made his first career start recently and took over for Bryce Underwood as Michigan picked up a win over Penn State, but the Wolverines offense still has not found a steady rhythm. For Rutgers, that uncertainty only adds another layer to a matchup that already feels like it could turn on which team settles its passing game first.
Rutgers has its own questions under center, though, and that makes this week feel less like a clean scouting assignment than a guessing game. Dylan Lonergan left the Northwestern game with a head injury, and Greg Schiano has not offered a clear answer on whether he will be available. With both sides waiting on quarterback clarity, this one could hinge on which staff can adapt fastest once the real game plan starts to unfold. [Read more 🡒]