After a frustrating three-game slide that knocked Purdue out of the top five and cost them pole position in the Big Ten, the Boilermakers are finally back on track-and just in time. With a strong finish, this team still has everything in front of it: a chance to win the Big Ten, a high NCAA Tournament seed, and a real shot at making it to the Final Four.
And barring a total collapse, Purdue’s headed to March Madness for the 11th straight year-a new school record. That kind of consistency doesn’t just happen.
It’s built on talent, culture, and guys like Braden Smith.
Let’s start there.
Braden Smith’s Assist Chase: History in Sight
Smith’s pursuit of the NCAA all-time assist record has hit a bit of a snag lately. Even with a 12-assist performance in the loss to Illinois, he’s been held to six or fewer dimes in four of his last five outings. That’s slowed his pace, but the dream is still alive.
He currently sits at 954 career assists, tied for ninth all-time with Kansas’ Aaron Miles. Depending on how deep Purdue goes in the Big Ten and NCAA Tournaments, Smith could still reach the 1,000-assist milestone.
If the Boilers bow out early, he’d need to average a little over 11 assists per game to get there. But if they string together a few wins in both tourneys-a realistic scenario-his target average drops to 9.38 per game, which is right around his season mark of 8.8.
Looking ahead, he’s got a chance to pass Tony Miller (956) and Sherman Douglas (960) this Saturday against Oregon, which would move him into seventh place all-time. And if things break right, he could become just the fifth player in NCAA history to hit 1,000 assists-possibly as soon as the Indiana game on February 20 or the Michigan State matchup on February 26.
To really threaten the all-time record, Smith likely needs five more postseason games. That’s doable.
If Purdue lands as a 5-8 seed in the Big Ten Tournament, they’d play an extra game in Chicago. Win that, and they’d likely face one of the Big Ten’s top dogs.
Add in a Sweet 16 run in March Madness, and Smith could be knocking on the door of history.
At the very least, second place (Chris Corchiani, 1,038 assists) is well within reach before the regular season wraps.
Purdue’s Resume: Strong, but Work to Do
The Boilermakers are sitting on a No. 3 seed in the current Bracket Matrix consensus, and their resume is solid across the board. The early-season win at Alabama still carries weight, even if the Crimson Tide’s recent stumbles have taken some shine off it. Wins over Texas Tech, Auburn, and Akron continue to age well, and there’s still plenty of meat left on the schedule to climb back to the top seed line.
Purdue has upcoming matchups against Michigan, Michigan State, and Nebraska-three teams currently ranked in the top 15. Depending on how Indiana holds up (they’re sitting at No. 32 in the NET), seven of Purdue’s final nine games could qualify as Tier 1 wins.
That’s huge. The only remaining games that wouldn’t be Tier 1 are home contests against Oregon and Wisconsin.
Even then, a road win over Wisconsin would still count in Tier 1.
And here’s the kicker: all four of Purdue’s losses are Tier 1. No bad losses on the resume.
That’s the kind of profile that selection committees love. The only potential blemish left?
A home loss to Oregon this Saturday.
If Purdue finishes strong and grabs the Big Ten crown, they’ll have absolutely earned their way back onto the top seed line.
Breaking Down the Non-Conference Wins
Let’s take a quick look at how Purdue’s non-conference opponents are faring, and what that means for their tournament profile:
- Evansville (5-18, NET 296) - Not much to see here. This is a low-tier opponent, and their struggles in the Missouri Valley don’t help Purdue’s strength of schedule.
- Oakland (14-10, NET 119) - Quietly solid. The Golden Grizzlies are near the top of the Horizon League and could be a Tier 2 win if they keep climbing.
- Alabama (14-7, NET 22) - Still a strong win, even after getting hammered by Florida. The Tide are .500 in SEC play, but their overall resume keeps this a Tier 1 road win.
- Akron (19-4, NET 53) - This one’s aging nicely. Nine straight wins and a 10-1 MAC record have the Zips looking like a potential two-bid league if things break right in the conference tourney.
- Memphis (10-11, NET 111) - Trending in the right direction after a blowout win over Florida Atlantic. If they can crack the top 100, this becomes a Tier 2 win.
- Texas Tech (16-6, NET 20) - Still Purdue’s best non-conference win, even after back-to-back losses to UCF and Kansas. A high-quality neutral-site victory.
- Eastern Illinois (9-14, NET 316) - Another low-tier opponent that doesn’t move the needle.
- Iowa State (20-2, NET 4) - While not a Purdue opponent, the Cyclones’ dominance helps the Big 12’s profile and indirectly boosts the value of Texas Tech as a win.
- Marquette (8-15, NET 127) - One of the more disappointing teams in the country. Their struggles have turned what could’ve been a marquee win into a forgettable one.
- Auburn (14-8, NET 29) - Still a solid neutral-site win. The Tigers are competitive in the SEC and will likely stay in Tier 1 territory.
- Kent State (17-6, NET 139) - A respectable MAC team, but not enough to significantly boost Purdue’s resume.
The Road Ahead
Purdue’s path to a No. 1 seed is still open, but it’s going to take a strong finish. The schedule is lined with high-value opportunities, and Braden Smith’s chase for history adds an extra layer of intrigue to every game. If the Boilermakers can stay healthy, find their rhythm, and avoid any slip-ups-especially against teams like Oregon-they’ll be in the mix for a top seed and a deep March run.
And if Braden Smith hits the 1,000-assist mark along the way? That’s the kind of story Purdue fans will be telling for a long, long time.