Purdue’s trip to Iowa City comes with the kind of spread that tells you exactly how oddsmakers see this one. After a rough homecoming weekend that ended in a surprising loss and a coaching shakeup, the Boilermakers head to Kinnick Stadium as a 16.5-point underdog to No.
16 Iowa, according to FanDuel. Kickoff is set for 7:30 PM ET under the lights.
Iowa enters at 7-2, with its only losses coming against Ohio State and at Minnesota. The Hawkeyes are still in the mix for a College Football Playoff push, sitting No. 19 in the current CFP rankings, though a new set of rankings will come out this week.
With three games left, including Saturday night, Iowa is trying to finish 10-2 and reach the playoff for the first time in school history. Their closest previous run came in 2015, when a 12-0 Iowa team lost to Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship, then watched the Spartans leapfrog them in the CFP rankings before Michigan State was routed by Alabama in the Cotton Bowl.
The market reflects the gap here. Purdue is +610 on the moneyline, while Iowa sits at -900. The over/under is 47.5.
That kind of number naturally raises the question of whether Iowa is that good or Purdue is that bad. The answer, at least from the way this season has gone, looks like both.
Purdue just watched Maryland - a team that had already fired its head coach two weeks earlier - run through its defense, while the offense couldn’t do enough with its chances. That loss led to the firing of defensive coordinator Kevin Kane, a move that looks like a disastrous hire in hindsight.
Barry Odom may have thrown Kane under the bus, and even if he didn’t, his own job security still feels very much in play.
Iowa, meanwhile, has found something it hasn’t always had: an offense. The Hawkeyes are averaging just about 200 passing yards per game and just under 175 rushing yards per game, with 13 passing touchdowns and 14 rushing touchdowns.
They’ve thrown 251 passes and run it 296 times, which gives them a pretty even split and, more importantly, a productive one. That balance has helped Iowa score nearly 28 points per game, a far cry from the old 6-3 grind-it-out days.
So the real hinge point may be whether Purdue can get any spark from a new defensive coordinator and make life uncomfortable for Iowa. The Hawkeyes also don’t lean heavily on the legs of quarterback Hank Brown, which might give the Boilermakers at least a path to hanging around. Whether that’s enough to stay inside three touchdowns is something we’ll find out Saturday night.
In Other News...
Purdue Already Faces An Early Test It Cant Afford To Flunk
Purdue heads into its meeting with Illinois State already trying to steady a shaky start, and the early-season concerns are easy to spot. The Boilermakers have not looked sharp from the perimeter, and the defense has had trouble giving the offense enough margin for error, which makes this next game feel more like a course correction than a routine nonconference date.
Illinois State brings a very different profile, with a dangerous outside attack that can punish any lapse in closeouts or ball pressure. For Purdue, the path forward runs through cleaner perimeter shooting, more turnovers forced on defense and a better use of Daniel Jacobsens size inside, because this is the kind of matchup that can either help the Boilermakers settle in or deepen the unease around an early slide. [Read more 🡒]
Purdues Early Slide Just Raised A Bigger Concern Than Rankings
The early-season Coaches Poll brought a familiar reshuffling at the top, with Florida No. 1, Duke No. 2 and Michigan State sitting at No. 5 in the Nov. 9 rankings. For Purdue, though, the more immediate news is less about where the contenders landed and more about where the Boilermakers disappeared from the list after a rough opening to the season.
Purdue is off to an 0-2 start, and the slide has already pushed it out of the poll conversation entirely. The Boilermakers have not been absent from the Coaches Poll since the preseason rankings before the 2022-23 season, so this early stumble is a notable break from the standard expectations around a program that usually spends November looking up at the top of the bracket rather than outside the rankings. [Read more 🡒]
Purdues 0-2 Start Just Exposed A Bigger Problem
Purdues season has opened with an uncomfortable reminder that even a program built on consistency can feel the loss of elite talent right away. After a decade of regular NCAA Tournament trips and the glow of a 2024 national title, the Boilermakers have stumbled out of the gate with a narrow loss to Gonzaga and an overtime defeat at home against Valparaiso, leaving the early conversation less about rankings and more about how quickly this roster can find its footing.
The frontcourt has at least offered a bright spot, with Daniel Jacobsen giving Purdue a reliable interior presence and some much-needed production. The bigger concern is whether the backcourt can generate enough scoring and control to keep the Boilermakers looking like a top-25 team, because without a steadier guard play the margin for error shrinks fast and the path back to being a true NCAA Tournament contender gets a lot tougher. [Read more 🡒]