Purdue gets back to work this week with a chance to reset the tone of its season.
Coming off a bye, the Boilermakers head into their Big Ten road trip to Penn State with some momentum still in hand from wins over Illinois and Minnesota. They did lose at home to Washington before the break, but the bigger picture is still manageable: Purdue is 2-2 in conference play and 3-4 overall. A victory in Happy Valley would get the Boilermakers back to .500 and keep bowl hopes in view.
Penn State is not exactly welcoming Purdue with open arms. The Nittany Lions are still searching for their first Big Ten win, and they’ll be looking to make life difficult with a defense that has carried them in stretches this season. For Purdue, the path to an upset starts with execution in a few key areas.
The first swing point is the red zone. Purdue’s defense has struggled badly when opponents get close, allowing touchdowns on 71.43% of red zone trips, a number that ranks 117th nationally.
That has to change if the Boilermakers want a shot on the road. The encouraging part for Purdue is that Penn State has not been especially sharp inside the 20 either.
The Nittany Lions are converting red-zone chances into touchdowns at a 53.57% clip, which ranks 109th in the country. In Big Ten play, Matt Campbell’s team has six touchdowns on 11 red-zone trips.
If Purdue can force field goals or empty drives, it can keep the game within reach.
Another major concern is Penn State’s ground game - or lack of one. The Nittany Lions have had real trouble finding traction on the ground in conference play, and that matters because any sign of balance would only make life easier for Rocco Becht and the passing game.
Penn State has been held under 70 rushing yards in each of its last three games, including a 119-yard outing on 36 carries against Wisconsin. No Penn State running back has broken off a carry of 10 yards or more against a Big Ten opponent, and the team’s 17 rushing plays of 10 or more yards rank 135th nationally.
Purdue has been vulnerable against the run at times this season, including against Wake Forest, UCLA, Notre Dame and Washington, so it cannot let a struggling rushing attack get going now.
The final piece is staying out of long-yardage situations. Penn State’s defense has been one of the sturdier parts of its season, allowing just 18.9 points per game and posting the best pass defense in the Big Ten statistically.
It has also been excellent on third down, getting off the field 71% of the time. Purdue needs to keep itself on schedule, move the chains, and avoid giving that defense easy wins.
Big plays can help, but Penn State has limited them, allowing only 23 completions of 20 yards or more, which ranks sixth in the Big Ten and 26th nationally. The Boilermakers need to avoid sacks, turnovers and negative plays and put themselves in 3rd-and-short as often as possible.
In Other News...
Purdue Gets An Immediate Reality Check In Matt Painters New Era
Purdue is heading into a fresh chapter under Matt Painter, and the early read on this group is going to come fast. After losing key pieces from last seasons team, including Braden Smith, the Boilermakers are asking a new cast to take on much larger responsibilities, with C.J. Cox, Omer Mayer, Daniel Jacobsen and Caden Pierce all positioned for expanded roles.
The first test is anything but gentle. Purdue opens against No. 15 Gonzaga in the Hall of Fame Series in Las Vegas on Nov. 2, a matchup that will also serve as an early snapshot of where both programs stand after busy offseasons and new-look rosters. Gonzaga is entering a transition of its own as it moves toward the Pac-12 and reshapes around transfers and a new addition from Real Madrid, which only raises the stakes for Purdues first look at its post-Braden Smith identity. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Still Brings One Big Threat Purdue Can't Ignore
Penn States season has been a study in what might have been, with preseason expectations giving way to a string of frustrating Big Ten results and a team still searching for its first conference win. The Nittany Lions have been close in several league games, and the conversation around them has centered on a defense that can still make life difficult, even as the offense has battled turnovers and a lack of explosive plays.
For Purdue, that means the danger is obvious: this is not a team that needs much help to stay in a game. Contributors from Black Shoe Diaries pointed to linebacker Tony Rojas as a defender who can tilt a matchup, while quarterback Rocco Becht remains part of the offensive picture as Penn State tries to find more rhythm. There is also the possibility of receiver Koby Howard being available for Saturday, which would only add another layer to a passing game that Purdue cannot afford to overlook. [Read more 🡒]
Purdue Has An Effort Question It Must Answer Before Gonzaga
An exhibition loss can be useful in early November if it leaves a team with a clear message, and Purdue got one after facing No. 4 UConn. The Boilermakers were outplayed in a game that exposed some familiar preseason concerns, most notably their perimeter shooting and the way they handled the glass. For a team with bigger goals, those are the kinds of details that cant be brushed aside as simply part of ramping up.
Now comes the part Purdue has to answer quickly, because the regular season opens against No. 15 Gonzaga in Las Vegas. The coaching staff has already stressed effort and defensive focus, which makes the response just as important as the result when the Boilermakers take the floor again. One outing can be written off in October, but it also can serve as an early test of whether the urgency carries over when the games start counting. [Read more 🡒]