Keaton Wagler wasn’t supposed to be the story. A lightly regarded recruit coming into the season, the Illinois freshman has not only played his way into the national spotlight - he’s now forcing NBA scouts to rethink their boards entirely.
After what he just did at Mackey Arena against then-No. 4 Purdue, the conversation has shifted from “Who is this kid?”
to “How high is he going in June?”
Wagler dropped 46 points on one of the best teams in the country - and he did it with the kind of poise that belied both his age and the moment. Illinois walked out of West Lafayette with an 88-82 win, and Wagler walked out having torched the Boilermakers like it was a solo workout.
The 6-foot-6 guard hit 9-of-11 from deep, most of them off the bounce, and barely cracked a facial expression the entire game. It wasn’t just the volume - it was the how.
Purdue threw every pick-and-roll coverage they had at him, and he calmly dissected each one like he’d seen it all before.
And when Purdue finally adjusted late in the game, doubling him off every screen, Wagler didn’t force the issue. He simply made the right play - over and over.
In the final five minutes, he set up four straight open threes for his teammates, helping Illinois score 14 points in five possessions before the Boilermakers resorted to fouling. Then, with the game on the line, he sealed it himself: a floater to put the game out of reach, followed by two free throws to ice it.
What makes Wagler such a tough cover is how much space he creates off the dribble. His crossovers and side steps are polished, his footwork is pristine, and he’s got that rare ability to keep defenders guessing - especially bigs who get switched onto him.
He uses the threat of the stepback three to bait defenders out of position, then slashes into the lane when they bite. And while he doesn’t have a ton of burst, he gets to his spots with purpose and control.
Even when Purdue started trapping him, Wagler kept his cool. One possession stood out: Illinois was trailing late in the shot clock, and Wagler - already sitting on 41 points - could’ve easily forced a tough shot.
Instead, he whipped a crosscourt pass to an open shooter, trusting his teammate to beat the buzzer. That’s not just high-IQ basketball - that’s leadership from a freshman playing in one of the toughest environments in college basketball.
Now, Wagler’s passing isn’t flashy - at least not yet. But it’s effective.
He’s averaging three assists for every turnover, which is no small feat for a freshman guard playing in a rugged Big Ten schedule. And it’s worth noting: Illinois hasn’t exactly been easing into the season.
Their nonconference slate included Texas Tech, Alabama, UConn, and Tennessee - all legit programs that test your mettle early.
Of course, there are still questions. Wagler’s frame is thin, and that could be an issue defensively at the next level.
He’s not a high-level athlete, and his defensive metrics reflect that - just 1.3 steals and 0.5 blocks per 100 possessions, with only two total “stocks” (steals + blocks) over his last seven games. He also tends to foul more than you’d like from a guard, and his 52.5% shooting on twos is fairly average.
Still, there are positives beyond the scoring. Despite his wiry build, Wagler rebounds well for a guard - his 10.2% rebound rate is solid, even if he didn’t grab a single board against Purdue.
And he draws fouls at a strong clip, which is impressive considering he takes more threes than twos. That speaks to his ability to keep defenders off balance and punish them when they overplay his jumper.
When you put it all together, Wagler is starting to look like one of the biggest steals in recent recruiting memory. He’s shooting 43.5% from deep on high volume, 82.6% from the line, and he’s just as comfortable pulling up off the dribble as he is spotting up off the catch.
He doesn’t just stretch defenses - he warps them. And when teams try to take the ball out of his hands, he’s shown he can make the right reads and keep the offense flowing.
There’s a little bit of Tyrese Haliburton in his game - not necessarily in athletic profile, but in the combination of feel, shooting touch, and unselfishness. He’s not going to wow you with highlight-reel plays, but he’s going to beat you with skill, IQ, and patience.
Wagler started the year as the 261st-ranked recruit in his class. That number feels laughable now.
After what he just did on the road against a top-five team, there’s no doubt left: Keaton Wagler is a lottery pick. And if he keeps this up, we might be talking about him as a top-10 lock - if not higher.